Market participants will be looking beyond another widely expected incremental oil output increase for clues about the alliance's cohesion, when seven members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies meet on Sunday in the backdrop of founding member Iraq's reported threats to leave the group over quota disagreements, industry analysts said.
"Expect the group to approve another (symbolic) increase. This is largely symbolic, as several members are already struggling to reach their current targets for obvious reasons," Neil Crosby, Head of Research at Sparta Commodities, told.
"The market is going to largely ignore the actual increase and is more interested probably in some of the statements around the state of the market and group cohesion," Crosby added.
Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS, projected another 188,000 barrels per day adjustment, which he said was largely symbolic due to the inability of several members to increase supply to quota levels and comes amid a reported pushback on quotas by Iraq.
"The dispute centres on Iraq's view that its production capacity and fiscal requirements are not adequately reflected in current allocations. To recall, Iraq has long been frustrated by compensation cuts required after repeatedly producing above quota in recent years," Sarkar said.
"As one of OPEC's largest producers and a founding member, Iraq's dissatisfaction carries greater significance than previous quota disputes, particularly at a time when several producers are seeking to maximise revenues amid a rapidly changing energy landscape."
Iraq has been among the biggest losers of the US-Iran war and is staring at a financial crisis, having failed to export its oil through alternative routes for over three months following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Sarkar said.
According to media reports last week, Iraq has warned that it is considering all options, including a potential exit from the OPEC, if the group does not significantly raise its production quota. The warning follows the UAE's recent exit from OPEC and could mark one of the most significant setbacks in the group's history, as Iraq is both a founding member and its second-largest producer.
Iraq's oil ministry last week reportedly denied that the country was considering leaving OPEC, saying the claims did not reflect the government's official position.
An Iraqi exit soon after the recent departure of another major member would deal a major blow to OPEC+, undermining its unity, market influence and credibility, although the threat is more likely a negotiating tactic to secure higher production quotas, Crosby said.
The UAE in late-April decided to quit OPEC, after a nearly six-decade long association, in a development that shocked energy markets, citing long-term strategic and economic priorities and future energy plans.
Nader Itayim, Mideast Gulf editor at Argus Media, also said an Iraqi exit from the group was highly unlikely, but the country was likely to use UAE's exit as a leverage in discussions over future production targets.
"The comments that were made were primarily focused on Iraq's long-standing desire to produce more, and therefore, secure a higher quota or allocation within the OPEC+ agreements. This is nothing new and is something each new prime minister will raise when taking office," Itayim said.
"The threat of leaving serves them much better than actually leaving."
Iraq, which was allocated a production quota of 4.378 million bbl/d for July, could likely aim to increase its output to 5 million bbl/d in the near-term and to up to 7 million bbl/d in the long run, according to DBS' Sarkar and international oil economist Mamdouh G. Salameh.
"The support OPEC provides in terms of defending prices is one major factor why Iraq will never leave OPEC," added Salameh, who expects OPEC+ to increase it output targets by 100,000-140,000 bbl/d on Sunday.
Following UAE's exit, seven OPEC+ countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman will meet on Sunday.
OPEC+ members, who previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, decided to implement an upward production adjustment of 188,000 bbl/d for July and June, 206,000 bbl/d in May, and 206,000 bbl/d in April in their four previous monthly meetings. Members had hit a pause on production hikes for Q1.
According to a Reuters analysis, the seven OPEC+ members have about 379,000 bbl/d of the original cuts left to bring back to the market from August and at the current pace are on track to fully unwind the remaining cuts by the end of September.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report published in June, OPEC noted that crude oil production by countries participating in the DOC averaged 33.13 million bbl/d in May, down about 190,000 bbl/d month over month.
The UAE's exit from OPEC reduced the cartel's global market share and production capacity, the US Energy Information Administration said last week.
The UAE averaged 3.4 mmbbl/d of crude oil production in 2025 and maintained an effective capacity of 4.2 mmbbl/d before the onset Iran conflict on Feb. 28, disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the EIA said.
In 2025, OPEC pumped an estimated 28 mmbbl/d of crude oil, equal to 35% of global supply. Excluding UAE, the group's share of worldwide production would have fallen to about 31%.
Producing 9.3 mmbbl/d and holding 11.6 mmbbl/d of effective capacity, Saudi Arabia remained OPEC's dominant producer and most influential member in 2025, according to the EIA.