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OPEC Forecasts Oil Demand at 124.1 Million B/d by 2050, Sees no Peak in Horizon

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday said global demand for oil is expected to grow robustly in the medium and long-term, "with no peak in oil demand on the horizon," projecting demand to reach 124.1 million barrels a day by 2050.

By 2030, demand is forecast to reach 113.3 million b/d and is projected to grow by 19 million b/d between 2025 and 2050, OPEC said in its World Oil Outlook 2050 report published Thursday.

Non-OECD nations are expected to lead this demand growth, with a projected increase of 7.4 million b/d between 2025 and 2030, and 26.9 million b/d between 2025 and 2050. OECD demand is expected to rise by around 700,000 b/d by 2030, but to decline by 8 million b/d by 2050.

By 2030, non-Declaration of Cooperation liquids supply is expected to increase by about 4.1 million b/d to 58.2 b/d, meeting roughly half of expected demand growth, with Brazil, Qatar, the US, Argentina, Canada, and emerging non-DoC African producers driving the increase.

"The latest analysis indicates that US tight crude supply likely peaked in 2025, at just over [9 million b/d], resulting in only modest total US liquids supply growth of [400,000 b/d] until 2030, before a plateau thereafter," the report added.

Non-DoC liquids supply is expected to peak at around 60 million b/d in the 2030s and remain largely flat, averaging 59.6 million b/d by 2050, up 5.5 million b/d from 2025. Canada and Argentina are among the few non-DoC producers expected to continue growing over the long term.

Meanwhile, DoC supply is projected to rise from 50.6 million b/d to 64.5 million b/d by 2050, with its market share rising from 48% to 52%.

Oil demand growth through 2050 is expected to be driven mainly by India, Other Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, which together are projected to add 25.2 million b/d, with India alone expected to account for 8.1 million b/d.

An addition of about 5.3 million b/d is expected from Other Asia, 4.7 million b/d from the Middle East, 4.3 million b/d from Africa, 2.8 million b/d from Latin America and 1.1 million b/d from China, the report added.

Global primary energy demand is projected to increase by 23% to almost 383 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2050 from about 312 million boe/d in 2025, with developing countries and regions led by India, Other Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America being the primary drivers of this growth.

According to OPEC, all primary fuels, except coal, are expected to see demand increase by 2050, with renewable energy sources, including biomass, solar, wind, and hydro, among others, projected to post the strongest combined growth of 51.3 million boe/d.

"Solar and wind account for most of this expansion, driven mainly by declining generation costs and policy support. However, grid constraints and rising integration costs remain the key challenges," the report said.

Oil demand is projected to rise by 18.6 million boe/d to 2050, natural gas by 19.3 million boe/d, and nuclear energy demand by 10.5 million boe/d during the outlook period. Meanwhile, coal demand is projected to decline by 29.3 million boe/d for the duration.

Oil is expected to remain the largest energy source through 2050, accounting for just under 30% of the energy mix. Together, oil and gas are projected to make up about 54%, while renewables are expected to grow from 15% in 2025 to around 26% by 2050.

OPEC projects a total oil investment requirement of $17.7 trillion to meet demand by 2050, with upstream at $14.5 trillion, downstream at $1.9 trillion, and midstream at $1.3 trillion.

Global electricity generation is projected to rise from about 32,000 terawatt-hours in 2025 to 59,500 TWh in 2050, with wind and solar output increasing the most, from around 5,400 TWh to 26,000 TWh over the same period, the report said.

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