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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall as Tropical Storm Threatens Gulf Coast LNG Exports

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US natural gas markets are weighing the potential impact of Tropical Storm Arthur on Gulf Coast LNG exports, while cooler-than-expected weather and a sizable storage build are adding downward pressure on prices.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract fell by 2.50% to $3.158 per million British thermal units.

Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the US Gulf Coast on Wednesday, including areas that host major LNG export facilities, multiple news outlets reported. According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm was located west-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana, on Wednesday afternoon and was moving northeast.

While forecasters do not expect Arthur to strengthen significantly, the storm is expected to bring dangerous flash flooding across parts of the Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center said rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches (12.7 to 25.4 centimeters) are expected through early Friday, with isolated areas potentially receiving up to 20 inches.

Any disruption to liquefaction facilities could temporarily reduce overseas shipments of US natural gas, leaving more supply available in the domestic market and weighing on prices.

Longer-term weather forecasts are also contributing to bearish sentiment. Commodity Weather Group said forecasts have shifted toward cooler conditions, with below-average temperatures expected across much of the Midwest through June 26, potentially reducing demand for electricity used for air conditioning.

Meanwhile, traders are preparing for another strong weekly storage injection. The US Energy Information Administration's storage report, due Thursday, is expected to show an increase of roughly 80 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 12, according to market estimates. That would exceed the five-year average build of 73 Bcf for the period.

A Wall Street Journal survey projected an average storage increase of 82 Bcf, with analyst estimates ranging from 66 Bcf to 117 Bcf, the Energy Buyers Guide said Wednesday. A build near consensus levels would expand the surplus of natural gas inventories relative to the five-year average to about 160 Bcf, up from 151 Bcf the previous week. However, inventories would remain roughly 20 Bcf below year-ago levels, compared with a deficit of 5 Bcf a week earlier, it said.

Market data also pointed to ample supply. BNEF estimates, cited by Barchart, show US dry gas production at 110.1 Bcf/d on Wednesday, up 2.2% from a year earlier.

Domestic gas demand was estimated at 69.4 Bcf/d, down 5.9% from the same period last year. Power sector demand softened as well. Celsius Energy estimated natural gas consumption by power generators at 23.2 Bcf late Wednesday, down 1.2 Bcf from the previous day and 2.3 Bcf below year-earlier levels.

LNG demand remained strong despite storm concerns. BNEF estimated net gas flows to US LNG export terminals at 19.5 Bcf/d on Wednesday, up 12.9% from the previous week.

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