The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies are largely expected to stick to their strategy to incrementally raise oil output when seven members meet virtually on Sunday, with the alliance nearing the final stages of completely unwinding production curbs agreed in April 2023, according to sector experts.
Mamdouh G. Salameh, international oil economist and global energy expert, toldthat OPEC is likely to maintain its gradual production increases until it completes the reversal of the supply cuts introduced in recent years.
Salameh estimated that the group could raise output by as much as 150,000 bbl/d, followed by a smaller increase in September to bring the unwinding process to an end.
"The expectation was that group would confirm a further ~188,000 bbl/d increase for September but that headline number is met with uncertainty in the current environment," said Jay Maroo, Head of Product Experts, at Sparta Commodities.
OPEC+ has been gradually easing production curbs in recent months, having decided to implement an upward production adjustment of 188,000 bbl/d for August, July and June, and 206,000 bbl/d in May and April in their five previous monthly meetings. Members had hit a pause on production hikes for Q1.
The September increase would mark the completion of a phased reversal of the 1.65 million bbl/d production cut agreed in 2023, when the UAE was still part of the group before leaving OPEC in May, said Reuters earlier this week in a report, which projected an increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September.
OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts of about 2 million bbl/d, introduced in 2022 and applicable to most members, that will remain in place through the end of 2026, the report added.
Sparta's Maroo said the alliance has largely restored, at least on paper, the supply it had intended to bring back, while ongoing constraints on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are limiting the ability of producers to increase actual exports from already restricted levels.
"Unless there is a major change in Hormuz transit, any OPEC production increase announcement isn't likely to translate into more oil actually getting to the global market," he said.
OPEC+ is projected to pause further increases to its oil production quotas after approving a final scheduled hike in September, as the group continues to assess the impact of the Iran conflict on global supply, multiple media outlets reported earlier this week.
"Any production additions after September will be driven by OPEC's limited spare production capacity, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the urgent need of major oil consumers like China, the US, the European Union and India to replenish their almost depleted strategic and inventory oil reserves," Salameh said.
Price Futures Group's Phil Flynn said a full pause is unlikely over the longer term, depending on the progress, or lack of it, of the Iran war and related shipping risks.
"A temporary pause after completing the current unwind is possible if market conditions or internal quota negotiations require it, but the structural pressure to reclaim market share remains," he said.
Flynn said the group's main near-term focus is expected to be on adjusting quotas following UAE's departure and the ongoing review of production capacity levels for 2027 baselines.
"I think we may see the beginning of a new alignment of quotas following the UAE exit, with Iraq in particular clamoring for a higher share that better reflects its capacity and needs. That discussion could produce the real market-moving developments, even if the September production decision itself is largely expected," he said.
"One of the longer-term outcomes of this war will be a sharp increase in OPEC production as the group works to regain lost market share. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea may delay the pace, but I believe the direction is inevitable. They will keep raising production," he added.
Salameh said while no surprises were expected from the meeting, there was potential for some sort of agreement to distribute UAE's former up to 3.5 million bbl/d quota among members that could raise production or countries seeking higher quotas, such as Iraq.
Seven OPEC+ countries namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman will meet virtually on Sunday.
In June, crude oil production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation rose by about 3 mmbbl/d month-over-month to average 36.28 mmbbl/d, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report published earlier this month.