Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained despite a pause in US strikes against Iran, with tanker traffic and Gulf crude exports showing little sign of recovery as heightened security risks continued to deter shipowners, maritime data showed on Thursday.
"A four day pause in US strikes on Iran has done little to restore Middle East Gulf crude exports," Kpler posted on X on Thursday.
The latest data from Kpler indicates that confirmed tanker clearances through the Hormuz remained close to "recent lows," while Gulf crude loading activity fell by over half for the first time in six weeks, underscoring persistent disruptions to one of the world's most important oil export routes.
The backlog of crude tankers has shifted between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, rather than clearing, reflecting continued operational bottlenecks rather than an improvement in export flows.
"Persistent maritime security risks, war risk insurance costs and Iranian interdiction now appear to be the main barriers," Kpler strategists said, noting that offshore ship-to-ship transfers have helped manage inventories without materially increasing export capacity.
The analysts said that the latest data suggest physical crude flows continue to provide a more reliable gauge of regional supply conditions than geopolitical developments alone.
Traffic through the Hormuz remained well below normal levels in the last 48 hours, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations in a Thursday note.
The latest shipping tracking data showed only single-digit tanker movements in both directions during recent reporting periods, with most transits concentrated along the northern corridor controlled by Iran, the UKMTO said, noting that US-facilitated commercial transits increased marginally but remained limited.
"Traffic patterns continued to reflect a cautious operator posture following earlier attacks, and several companies delayed or rescheduled passages," the UKMTO said. A growing number of vessels transited with their Automatic Identification System signals switched off, reducing visibility of overall traffic.
UKMTO said Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continued to disrupt commercial vessels through radio calls, unmanned aerial vehicle overflights and targeted surveillance of merchant vessels.
Though no new attacks on shipping in the Hormuz were confirmed over the past 48 hours, UKMTO said that drifting or uncharted naval mines remained a persistent hazard near established traffic separation schemes.
Elsewhere, commercial traffic through the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continued steadily. However, security risks increased following a confirmed Houthi attack on a Saudi-flagged tanker that was struck by an unidentified projectile before catching fire.
Meanwhile, the US Central Command said in an X post on Thursday that as of July 30 its forces had redirected 24 commercial vessels, disabled two others and boarded two ships to ensure compliance with security measures.
Centcom also said its forces had struck dozens of IRGC targets across Iran, including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance sites and maritime capabilities to reduce threats to commercial shipping.