FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Oil Price Rebounds from Escalating Tensions, Strait of Hormuz Disruptions, ABN Amro Says

By

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and decreased flows through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted a rebound in oil prices, but lower demand and other factors have limited the price impact, ABN Amro Group Economics said in a Thursday note.

Oil demand fell by 6.8 million barrels per day between the end of 2025 and June 2026, ABN Amro said. Alternative export routes, dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers and high US oil production have also capped the increase in oil prices.

The market is expected to remain tight even if a near-term deal to reopen the strait is reached. Meanwhile, recovering Asian demand, higher refinery activity and the need to rebuild low inventories are seen to provide price support later in the year, ABN Amro said.

Related Articles

Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Rise Late Afternoon

Energy stocks rose late Wednesday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index climbing up 0.5% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) gaining 0.9%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index jumped 2.7%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index advanced 0.1%.West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.7% to $90.81 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent gained 0.9% to $95.45 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures added 2.8% to $2.99 per 1 million BTU.In geopolitical news, additional US strikes on Iran Tuesday led to Tehran attacking Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait. "They will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!" Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday.The Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps said two oil tankers exploded after hitting a mine and are now on fire, Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported Wednesday.In sector news, US crude oil stocks, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 7.6 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 28 following a decrease of 3.6 million barrels in the previous week. Excluding inventories in the SPR, commercial crude oil stocks declined by 4.5 million barrels after a 100,000-barrel gain in the previous week, compared to the 60,000-barrel increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.In corporate news, Chevron (CVX) outlined a plan to invest more than $7 billion in Venezuela and double its oil production capacity in the South American country over the next five years. Shares rose 0.6%.GE Vernova (GEV) has agreed to restore large sections of Venezuela's electrical network under a US government initiative to boost the nation's energy generation, Bloomberg reported. GE Vernova shares gained 3%.Venture Global (VG) told customers of its Plaquemines Phase 2 LNG export plant in Louisiana that deliveries remain on schedule at previously agreed prices, Reuters reported. Venture Global shares fell 2.2%.Calumet (CLMT) said Wednesday that the US Environmental Protection Agency granted full small refinery exemptions for two of its petitions covering the 2025 compliance year. The company said the exemptions will reduce its balance-sheet liability by 71 million renewable identification numbers, valued at about $170 million as of last June. Calumet shares rose 3%.

$CLMT$CVX$GEV$VG
Sectors

Sector Update: Financial Stocks Higher Late Afternoon

Financial stocks were advancing late Wednesday afternoon, with the NYSE Financial Index adding 1% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) up 0.9%.The Philadelphia Housing Index increased 0.6%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) was shedding 0.7%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was declining 0.2% to $77,230, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries was steady at 4.796%.In economic news, ADP's monthly measure of private payrolls showed a 38,000 rise in August, below a 47,000 gain expected in a Bloomberg survey, following a 46,000 increase in July.New orders for US factory goods rose by 0.9% in July, above expectations for a 0.7% increase in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following a 0.2% decrease in June.In corporate news, Capital One Financial (COF) was pressed by Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan for details about an internal anti-money laundering review that the bank said last month had led to the closure of accounts tied to President Donald Trump and his businesses, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing a letter sent by the senator to Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank Tuesday. Capital One shares were up 2.8%.KKR (KKR) has agreed to buy residential garage door repair and replacement company A1 Garage Door Service for about $2 billion, Reuters reported. KKR shares rose 0.9%.TPG (TPG) has filed a confidential application to list hospital assets worth nearly $8 billion in Malaysia, The Wall Street Journal reported. TPG shares added 0.4%.Citigroup's (C) Citibank NA London Branch has been fined about 4.7 million British pounds ($6.3 million) under the UK's Russia sanctions regime, Britain's Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation said. Citi shares were up 1.4%.

$C$COF$KKR$TPG
Sectors

Sector Update: Healthcare Stocks Advance Late Afternoon

Healthcare stocks were higher late Wednesday afternoon, with the NYSE Healthcare Index and the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) each adding 0.8%.The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) climbed 1.4%.In corporate news, Novartis (NVS) has signed an option and licensing agreement with South Korean biotech Alteogen to develop and sell subcutaneous versions of multiple Novartis drugs using its ALT-B4 technology, Alteogen said Wednesday. Novartis shares rose 0.5%.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is positioned for accelerating growth, supported by a strong pharma pipeline, UBS said in a note. UBS assumed coverage of the stock with a buy rating and a $320 price target. Its shares rose 1.6%.Alumis (ALMS) shares jumped past 8%. The company's share price drop after the disappointing results of a phase 2b trial of envudeucitinib to treat systemic lupus erythematosus was likely an overreaction, Oppenheimer said in a note. Oppenheimer kept Alumis' outperform rating, while lowering the company's price target to $37 from $55.Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) said it completed patient enrollment for a phase 3 study of its commercial PSMA-PET imaging agents Illuccix and Gozellix in prostate cancer imaging in pre-biopsy setting. Telix shares climbed 5.6%.

$ALMS$JNJ$NVS$TLX