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Oil Market Could Swing Back to Oversupply as Venezuelan, Iranian Output Recovers, Kpler Says

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Brent crude has climbed above $100 per barrel during the Iran conflict, but a return of Venezuelan, Iranian and Russian volumes could create oversupply risks and weigh on prices by 2027, according to Kpler in a Friday note.

While markets currently focus on disrupted Middle East supplies, geopolitical developments could eventually allow more sanctioned crude to return, adding significant volumes to an already well-supplied market.

Before the conflict began, analysts expected global oil supplies to exceed demand by almost 2 million barrels per day, the largest surplus since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Political changes in Venezuela and new operating approvals have accelerated production growth, lifting output to about 1.25 million b/d and putting the country on track to reach 1.5 million b/d by 2027.

Venezuelan production could rise by almost 600,000 b/d over the year to roughly 1.3 million b/d, increasing competition among heavy crude suppliers, according to Kpler estimates.

If sanctions are eased, Iran could quickly return substantial volumes to the market. Kpler estimated that about 150 million barrels of Iranian crude currently remain in floating storage.

Additional revenue and sanctions relief could help Iran increase production to around 4 million b/d next year, up from about 2.7 million b/d currently, while barrels stored could enter the market rapidly.

Repeated US waivers have encouraged more Asian refiners to purchase Russian crude, helping exports remain near 3.5 million b/d despite continued Ukrainian drone attacks, Kpler said.

Countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines have joined the buyer pool for Russian oil, reducing the impact of potential future restrictions and supporting export demand.

The bearish supply outlook faces risks, as Israeli strikes have reduced output from Iran's South Pars condensate project and restoring lost production could require substantial investment, Kpler said.

Uncertainty surrounding any US-Iran agreement also remains high. The White House on Friday dismissed reports of a memorandum of understanding as a "complete fabrication," a development that could prolong supply tightness tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler said.

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