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Nomura Sees Limited Growth Impact From Latest US Tariffs on Canada

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This week's new US tariffs are expected to have a limited impact on Canada's growth outlook, reflecting their relatively narrow scope, according to Nomura Global Markets Research on Wednesday.

President Donald Trump's tariffs announced on Monday, set to come into force on Aug. 19, encompass a broad range of Canadian goods but cover only a small fraction of total Canadian exports to the US, said Nomura.

"We expect the overall growth impact to be limited," wrote the bank in a note.

Although the tariffs apply irrespective of US-Mexico-Canada Agreement origin status, broad exemptions for energy, potash, critical minerals and other categories reduce the scope of affected trade, said Nomura. "Only" around $20 billion of annual imports, or 5.3% of US imports from Canada, are expected to be impacted, raising the average effective tariff rate to roughly 5.5% from the current 3%.

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