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Nigeria Oil Supply Seen Rising in H2 2026 as Dangote Refinery Boosts Crude Demand, Kpler Says

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Nigeria's crude and condensate supply is expected to rise in the second half of 2026 as exports remain elevated, Kpler analyst Victoria Grabenwoger said in a note.

Additionally, stronger runs at the Dangote refinery are likely to support domestic crude demand and imports, according to the note.

Nigeria's crude and condensate exports, including domestic flows, averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day in Q1 and rose to 1.8 million b/d in Q2. Volumes have remained above 1.8 million b/d in July and August.

The increase has been partly driven by Cawthorne, a newer Nigerian crude grade that has added about 30,000-35,000 b/d since April.

Bonny Light loadings have also increased, rising to about 370,000 b/d in June and July from 290,000 b/d between February and April.

Kpler now expects Nigeria's crude and condensate production to average 1.75 million b/d in the second half of 2026, about 80,000 b/d higher than in the first half, with production expected to remain at similar levels into 2027.

Nigerian crude prices have also strengthened, with spot premiums for Bonny Light, Qua Iboe and Forcados rising by $3-$4 per barrel between late July and late August.

Forcados was trading at about $7/bbl above the North Sea Dated benchmark, compared with $2/bbl a year earlier, according to Argus Media.

Strong demand from Asian refiners and concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and CPC loading operations have supported West African crude prices.

Kpler expects those premiums to remain firm into September.

Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery is expected to increase crude processing to about 700,000 b/d in August and maintain that level in September, up from roughly 480,000 b/d in July when maintenance reduced output.

The refinery's crude imports reached a record 670,000 b/d in August, with Nigerian crude making up about 85%-90% of its supply.

No US WTI crude has been delivered to Dangote in the past five months, as stronger US demand and shifting global trade flows have made West African grades more competitive.

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