Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb edged higher last week, but a decline in laden vessels and an increase in sanctioned crossings via the Hormuz point to growing risks for commercial shipping, maritime data showed on Monday.
The latest data from Kpler shows that 121 vessels crossed the Hormuz last week, a 2.5% increase, but laden transits fell 27%, suggesting that the increase in headline traffic was not matched by a similar level of commercial activity.
The marine data platform said that sanctioned crossings through the strategic waterway rose to 16 from nine, while the use of Iran's unilateral routing scheme climbed to 46.3% of crossings.
US-Iran tensions have escalated in the aftermath of a new sanctions campaign announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday.
Additionally, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reportedly said Monday that the US is ready to use military force against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz if needed.
In remarks to reporters, Hegseth reportedly said that the US is not "foreclosing using kinetic strikes anywhere in the Strait of Hormuz or around Iran."
Meanwhile, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said on Sunday it had blacklisted 45 tankers for violating its transit rules in the Hormuz, noting that the vessels could face penalties, including "fines, seizure, or confiscation" during future passages.
The restricted list includes very large crude carriers, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers, and clean product vessels, among others.
Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an attack on a tanker 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia. The vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on the main deck.
The UKMTO said there had been no confirmed attacks or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz after 48 hours on Sunday.
Commercial traffic remained at reduced levels, with independent tracking data showing single-digit numbers of vessels transiting in both directions.
There was also an ongoing risk from drifting or uncharted mines in and near the traffic separation scheme, with mine danger areas still active, according to the maritime security assessment.
The UKMTO said no confirmed attack or disruption had been reported during the latest period, although commercial traffic through the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remained below normal levels.
The agency said that reduced traffic is consistent with a pattern established after the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on July 20, following earlier confirmed attacks on vessels in the region.
For oil and gas markets, the divergent traffic patterns at the two chokepoints highlight the difficulty of assessing supply-chain risks from aggregate vessel counts alone.