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New Zealand GDP May Have Grown by 1% on an Annual Basis in the March Quarter, BofA Securities Says

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New Zealand's gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to have grown by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter and 1% year-over-year in the March quarter, below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 1% quarter-over-quarter expectation, and slightly below consensus at 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, BofA Securities said in a Tuesday note.

Growth is expected to be relatively broad-based, with both primary and services industries supporting the economy, although construction activity remains weak. Consumption growth is expected to be solid, but investment should weaken alongside deteriorating sentiment in the period.

The GDP is likely to contract in the June quarter, given the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

The firm expects the central bank to hike the official cash rate at the July meeting to help anchor inflation expectations. Higher energy-driven inflation will drive a negative real income and growth impulse, which will further increase spare capacity through the middle of the year, all else equal, the note added.

Retail sales increased by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in the March quarter, above market expectations of a 0.5% rise. The increase was broad-based, with sales in 10 out of 15 industries rising, mainly driven by supermarket and grocery stores, homeware supplies, and accommodation. This strength in retail sales is expected to reverse in the June quarter as surging fuel prices and weaker confidence weigh on households.

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