FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

New Zealand CPI Expectations Rise in June Quarter, RBNZ Survey Says

By

Expectations for New Zealand's one-year-ahead annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased by 82 basis points to 3.41% from 2.59% in June quarter, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) survey published on Wednesday.

Two-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.53% from 2.37%, while five-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 2.22% from 2.31%, and 10-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 2.19% from 2.30%.

On average, survey respondents expect the official cash rate to remain at 2.34% by the end of the June quarter.

One-year-ahead unemployment rate expectations increased to 5.37% from 4.95%, and two-year-ahead unemployment rate expectations increased to 4.97% from 4.58%.

Expectations for annual wage inflation over the next one and two years have increased to 2.63% and 2.84%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter.

Expectations for annual real gross domestic product growth were 1.58% and 2.16% for the one and two-year-ahead time horizons, respectively.

Annual house price inflation expectations tightened across all horizons, with one-year-ahead expectations falling to 0.33% from 2.37% and two-year-ahead expectations declining to 2.80% from 3.44%.

Related Articles

International

French Unemployment Rate Climbs to 8.1% in Q1

France's unemployment rate came in at 8.1% in the first quarter, up from 7.9% in the prior three-month period, the statistics agency Insee said Wednesday.Analysts expected a 7.8% unemployment rate for the quarter.

$^SXXP
International

Data Points to Slowing Momentum Across New Zealand Services Industries, Households, ANZ Says

High-frequency data pointed to slowing momentum across services industries and households in New Zealand as the conflict in the Middle East leaves global oil markets tight, and shipping costs and refining margins elevated, ANZ said in its Quarterly Economic Outlook report on Wednesday.New Zealand's first quarter gross domestic product (GDP), largely pre-dating the shock, is expected to print strongly at 0.9% quarter-over-quarter. Growth over 2026 is anticipated to come in at 1.5% year-over-year, before advancing to 2.6% and 2.8% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. Annual inflation is forecast to accelerate to 4.4% year-over-year in the second quarter before slowing to 4.3% in the third quarter and reaching 4.1% by the end of the year.ANZ's Business Outlook suggests firms are absorbing some of the cost surge. Recent resilience in the Purchasing Managers' Index and ANZ's Heavy Traffic Index suggests some firms may be building up inventories to mitigate the risk of potential transport disruptions. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is anticipated to begin normalizing the official cash rate in July, with three consecutive hikes. Higher fuel costs have driven a reduction in spending on more discretionary goods and services.While the broad direction of travel for inflation and activity in the near term is known, the magnitude of the fallout for New Zealand businesses and households, and the persistence of this shock, remain unknown. The longer the shock continues, the greater the pressure on firms to pass higher costs on to consumers, and the more "demand destruction" may occur.Consumer inflation expectations have jumped higher than during COVID-19, and firms' employment intentions are "clearly deteriorating." For low-income households, the cost-of-living squeeze is most acute, while upward pressure on mortgage rates may hit middle-income households the hardest.Brent crude oil is assumed to fall to just under $90 per barrel by the end of the year, before falling to $80 per barrel by the end of 2027.

$^NZ50
International

Australia's Wage Price Index Rises in March Quarter

Australia's seasonally adjusted wage price index rose 0.8% in the March quarter, unchanged from the December 2025 quarter, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.Quarterly wage growth was led by health care and social assistance, up 0.7%.Hourly pay rates, excluding bonuses, increased by 0.8% in the private and 0.5% in the public sectors.On an annual basis, wage growth was 3.3% in the March quarter, down from 3.4% in the previous quarter.Public sector wages rose 3.3% in the year to the March quarter, down from 3.6% a year earlier, while private sector wages grew 3.2%, down from 3.3%.

$^AXJO