Ongoing military clashes and uncertainty around a proposed 60-day ceasefire continue to cloud the outlook for Strait of Hormuz shipping, RBC Capital Markets said Friday.
On Thursday, US forces intercepted four Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz and struck military targets near Bandar Abbas, while Kuwait intercepted a ballistic missile launched by Iran toward a US base, RBC said.
The latest incidents followed US attacks earlier in the week on two vessels accused of laying mines in the Strait and on an air-defense position near Bandar Abbas, according to the report.
Reports have suggested both sides could agree to a 60-day ceasefire extension that would allow further negotiations and free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but RBC said expectations for a comprehensive deal appear to be ahead of actual developments.
The firm noted that similar agreement reports emerged three weeks ago, yet the conflict has continued and roughly 300 million barrels of production have been lost since then. Fresh reports of attacks on vessels that did not coordinate passage with the IRGC also surfaced after the latest market selloff.
Even if an interim agreement increases vessel movements, RBC expects traffic to remain difficult because early transit approvals would likely occur in only one direction, complicating efforts to clear shipping backlogs.
RBC believes Feb. 27, 2026, may prove to be the peak for Hormuz tanker traffic for the foreseeable future. The firm expects lower volumes if Iran retains operational influence over the waterway, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia increasingly expand alternative export routes.
High insurance costs, sanctions-related legal risks, and the possibility of renewed missile, drone, and mine attacks could discourage many Western shipping companies from returning even if a 60-day agreement is signed, RBC said.
Shipping specialists have indicated that a reopening overseen by Iran would likely support only limited volumes, while unrestricted transit may require a clearer military outcome and stronger security guarantees, according to RBC.
The firm also said some Iranian policymakers may prefer the current environment, as transit fees and oil sales under waivers continue generating revenue while the ceasefire period allows time to rebuild military capabilities.
Strategic petroleum reserve releases and high inventories initially softened the impact of the disruption, but RBC said those buffers are gradually shrinking as the conflict enters its fourth month, increasing pressure to restore normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the current six-week average draw rate, inventory cover could fall to just 30-40 days by October, the lowest level in data going back to 2016, RBC said.
RBC expects stockpiles to tighten even faster in the coming weeks, with limited visibility into some markets, including China, potentially masking larger inventory declines.
The firm said prolonged disruptions through the summer could strain refinery operations and test the market's ability to avoid a more severe supply crunch.