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Nationwide: UK Annual House Price Growth Slows in May as Middle East Conflict Drags Sentiment

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Nationwide: UK Annual House Price Growth Slows in May as Middle East Conflict Drags Sentiment

UK annual house price growth cooled significantly in May as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled consumer confidence and dampened buyer demand.

Annual house price growth eased to 1.7% from 3% in April, data from Nationwide Building Society showed Monday. Month over month, house prices were 0.6% lower on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.4% gain in April, marking the first drop in five months. The monthly figure is also below the expected 0.1% decline.

The average UK house price is now worth 278,024 pounds sterling in May, edging down from 278,880 pounds a month before.

"Given the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in energy prices and market interest rates, some loss of momentum was to be expected. Indeed, consumer confidence has weakened noticeably since the start of the conflict, with GfK's headline index falling to its lowest level since late 2023 in April, with only a marginal increase in May," Nationwide's Chief Economist Robert Gardner said.

Gardner noted that indicators of the housing market sentiment also worsened. Data from the UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed a steep drop in new buyer enquiries in March 2026, with the index indicating its weakest reading since 2023 and failing to recover in the following month.

On the flip side, Nationwide highlighted that "the UK economy entered this shock on a slightly stronger footing than expected," growing by a "healthy" 0.6% in the first quarter while April inflation softened more than anticipated. Furthermore, the report added that a 20-year low in household debt-to-income ratios, "sizable" savings buffers, and improved housing affordability continue to support housing market resilience.

While the developments in the Middle East are anticipated to moderate growth and push inflation higher than previously expected in 2026, the ultimate impact depends on the conflict's duration and policy response, Gardner added. If energy prices normalize quickly, any near-term softening in the housing market is expected to be short-lived.

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