National Bank has downgraded Transat A.T (TRZ.TO) to underperform from sector perform, and trimmed its price target by $0.75, to $2.25, ahead of the company's second-quarter results.
Analyst Cameron Doerksen says the downgrade is driven mainly by higher jet fuel costs, which will be a major profit headwind for Transat in the coming quarters. "Whereas the average spot price of jet fuel in Transat's H2/25 was C$0.89/liter, the average for summer so far is C$1.45/liter (+63% y/y)," he notes.
While Transat has implemented fuel surcharges and other pricing actions, Doerksen expects that raising fares may be more challenging for a leisure-focused airline than for other large network carriers that have greater premium customer exposure.
Furthermore, Transat's focus is on long-haul routes where a greater percentage of capacity has been sold in advance at prices that do not reflect the spike in jet fuel prices from late February, he adds.
Price: $2.68, Change: $-0.04, Percent Change: -1.47%