Global energy exporters are the biggest beneficiaries of the prolonged Middle East supply disruption, while fuel-importing developing economies face higher energy bills, inflation and weaker currencies, Wood Mackenzie analysts said on Thursday in an interview with.
Major oil-producing countries led primarily by the US, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have capitalized on surging commodity prices and resilient production structures, insulating them from the chaos shaking the wider market.
"The structural winner of this is arguably the US," Alan Gelder, Vice President of Refining, Chemicals, and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie said, citing the country's position as the world's largest oil producer.
The consultancy estimated the market has already lost roughly 10 million barrels per day of supply, creating what analysts described as the largest energy shock in modern history.
"To destroy 10 million barrels a day of demand, you need an oil price of about $200 a barrel," Gelder said. The buffer of reserves that has softened the impact of the Strait of Hormuz is finite however and running down quickly.
Peter Martin, Head of Economics at Wood Mackenzie said the consultancy's extended disruption scenario points to a 0.4% contraction in global GDP growth this year, alongside persistently high inflation and weak growth into next year.
Meanwhile, in the US, energy majors like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) have posted robust financial performance, insulated by domestic crude production hovering near historic highs of 13.6 million barrels per day.
Concurrently, oil companies in the Gulf are leveraging their vast infrastructure to bypass logistical chokepoints and secure massive financial windfalls.
Saudi Aramco recently announced a staggering $32.5 billion in net income for Q1 driven by higher realized prices for crude oil and refined products.
Aramco has kept its exports moving to global markets by cranking up its East-West Pipeline up to its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels per day.
Similarly, the UAE's ADNOC reported its strongest Q1 performance on record. Net profits climbed to $347 million on the back of aggressive regional expansion and high rig utilization.
The windfall is not restricted to crude, as Wood Mackenzie noted that global Liquefied Natural Gas exporters and coal producers have also emerged as winners as buyers scramble to find substitutes to both oil and gas.
Fuel-importing developing economies, including Pakistan and several African nations, find themselves caught between surging international prices and a shrinking pool of physical supply.