FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Falls More Than Expected in Preliminary September Survey

By

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 in September from 51.7 in August, larger than an expected decrease to 51.0 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The current conditions index decreased to 50.9 in September from 51.9 in August, while the expectations reading declined to 45.8 from 51.5.

"With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come," Michigan said. "Five-year expected business conditions remained stable at readings well below their historical average, suggesting that consumers believe that emerging risks this month may not have further worsened the long-run outlook."

Respondents saw one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%, up sharply from 4.0% in August, while five-year inflation expectations increased to 3.4% from after three straight months at 3.3%

The twice-monthly Michigan Sentiment index measures consumer sentiment early in the current month (the preliminary estimate) and is then revised later in the month (the final estimate). The headline index is a combination of the current assessment and expectations for the near future.

An increase in the reading suggests consumers are more confident, a positive for stocks if that confidence translates into spending. Increased demand is usually inflationary, a negative for bonds.

What else is happening in International?

International

El Niño Climate Phenomenon Could Pose Risk to Pasture-Based Agriculture in New Zealand, Westpac Says

A developing El Niño climate phenomenon pattern threatens an increased risk of drought in many parts of New Zealand, with the main economic risk being to pasture-based agriculture, Westpac said in a report on Friday.A strong El Niño is developing and could intensify further, raising the risk of hot, dry conditions across parts of New Zealand over summer. It is expected to strengthen further in the next few months and persist into mid-2027. Dairy, sheep and beef farming in particular are at risk, where drought can reduce pasture growth, lower production, raise costs and disrupt processing patterns across the season.In worst-case scenarios, severe droughts in the past have led to as much as one percentage point being cut from gross domestic product growth.There is a clear downside risk to agricultural production, and these impacts are predominantly supply-side effects that reduce potential output. However, the impact is highly uncertain, the bank cautioned.Inflation effects are likely to be mixed but pointing higher, with potential upward pressure on dairy and imported food prices, partly offset by downward pressure on meat prices in the near-term.

^NZ50
International

Australian Card Transaction Activity Softens in Late August But Quarterly Growth Continues to Firm, Westpac Says

Australian card transaction activity fell slightly in late August from a historical high earlier in the month, although quarterly growth momentum has continued to strengthen and is now in the 1.3% to 1.5% range, Westpac said in a Thursday report.The Westpac-DataX Card Tracker Index fell to 158.1 in the week ended Aug. 29, a decline of 1.1 points from the 159.2 reading for the week ended Aug. 8, the report showed.While the quarterly growth marks the strongest pace of expansion since late March, more of the gain now appears to be coming from higher fuel spend as petrol prices have again topped AU$2 per liter following the end of temporary excise tax cuts, the bank said."The latest card tracker data shows a pick-up in nominal spending growth momentum but a significant part of the lift, potentially up to half, looks to relate to higher prices rather than volumes," Westpac said.Meanwhile, monthly growth momentum saw some softening, tracking a milder 0.2% gain for August, down from the 0.7% to 0.9% pace registered from May through July.Victoria continues to lead other regions, with quarterly growth running at 2.2% compared with growth rates of 0.9% to 1.5% across other major states, the bank said.

ASX 200
International

Large Japanese Manufacturers' Sentiment Rebounds in Q3

The business survey index, or BSI, for large manufacturers in Japan rose 7.6% in the third quarter, reversing the 1.8% contraction in the second quarter, according to data from the Ministry of Finance's Policy Research Institute on Friday.That reading beat the consensus forecast for 2.5% growth, according to Investing.com.Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing sector's BSI rose 4.2% in the July-to-September period, recovering from a flat movement in the previous quarter.The all-industries BSI jumped 5.3% during the third quarter, also rebounding from the 0.5% decline previously.

Nikkei 225