Mexico is set to begin liquefied natural gas exports from its Pacific coast for the first time, Kpler analyst Camille Klass said in a Tuesday note.
The LNG tanker Pacific Success is en route to load the inaugural cargo from Sempra Infrastructure's (SRE) Energia Costa Azul terminal in Baja California.
Klass said Kpler data show the TotalEnergies (TTE)-operated Pacific Success is expected to arrive near the ECA LNG terminal on Tuesday.
ECA consists of a single liquefaction train and is jointly owned by Sempra Infrastructure and TotalEnergies.
TotalEnergies holds a 16.6% equity stake and has contracted 1.7 million metric tons per annum of LNG from the facility, while Mitsui has long-term offtake rights for 0.8 mtpa.
The expected first export comes about a month after the project began producing LNG during commissioning, following mechanical completion and the introduction of first gas.
Sempra previously said it expected substantial completion during the summer, with commercial deliveries under long-term sales agreements to begin shortly afterward.
The startup schedule has been closely watched after the company delayed commercial operations from an earlier spring target to complete additional quality-related inspections.
The anticipated loading follows a sharp increase in feed gas deliveries to the terminal in June, signaling commissioning had entered its final stages.
Kpler forecast that ECA LNG would "likely export its first LNG cargo in early-to-mid July" after feedgas flows to the plant rose to about 0.4 billion cubic feet per day in mid-June and remained at that level for several days.
According to Kpler Insight, those volumes, equivalent to roughly 3 mtpa of LNG production, indicated the first export cargo was imminent.
The project also began receiving gas under its long-term firm transportation agreement on the Rosarito pipeline in May, replacing earlier interruptible volumes.
Kpler forecasts that the project will export about 1.14 million mt of LNG in 2026 as commissioning transitions to full commercial operations.
With the start of exports, ECA will become Mexico's first LNG export terminal on the Pacific coast, providing a direct route to Asian markets without requiring transit through the Panama Canal.
Mexico's only other operating LNG export project, Altamira Fast LNG in Tamaulipas on the Gulf coast, ships cargoes through the Atlantic Basin.