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Markets Weigh US-Iran Deal Optimism Against Lingering Gulf Tensions, TPH Energy Says

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Brent crude futures fell about 4% since Friday as markets reacted to signs that the US and Iran may soon finalize a preliminary agreement, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a Tuesday note.

US President Donald Trump said Saturday the agreement had been "largely negotiated and will be announced shortly," though administration officials later signaled that negotiators still needed more time to finalize the deal.

Trump later said he was not rushing to complete the deal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiators still needed several days to finalize the language, according to the report.

TPH said Monday's limited US strike on Iranian coastal military assets did not appear to halt negotiations, although Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned it could respond to future US ceasefire violations.

Iranian officials remained cautious on the timeline for an agreement and accused Washington of changing its position on issues tied to Lebanon, Hezbollah attacks and access to frozen Iranian assets.

TPH said earlier reports linked the release of Iranian assets to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while more recent Iranian media reports tied the issue to highly enriched uranium negotiations.

Iran continued to insist that broader nuclear talks can only begin after fighting ends across all fronts, with Iranian media reports indicating negotiators set aside 60 days for future discussions.

Iranian officials still claimed authority over operations in the Strait of Hormuz, with Foreign Minister Baghaei describing potential payments as service fees rather than tolls, while TPH said supply disruptions and inventory declines continued into the conflict's 88th day.

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