Nigeria's Dangote refinery maintained near-nameplate operations through April and May, running at about 600,000 barrels per day, while overhauling its crude sourcing mix and ramping product exports, Kpler strategists said in a Monday note.
Kpler analysts said crude imports reached about 630,000 b/d in April and 609,000 b/d month-to-date in May, with domestic Nigerian grades accounting for the bulk of supply.
Local crude intake surged to about 605,000 b/d in April, before easing slightly to 552,000 b/d so far in May, underscoring the refinery's growing reliance on domestic feedstock, the analysts said.
The most notable shift in the crude slate was the complete disappearance of WTI Midland barrels in April, after they averaged over 200,000 b/d in February and March.
The grade had previously served as the main non-domestic alternative. However, deteriorating Atlantic Basin economics, driven by higher freight rates, insurance, and voyage costs amid regional disruptions, eroded its competitiveness relative to Nigeria.
In response, Dangote expanded sourcing across alternative grades, including Cameroon's Ebome, Guyana's Payara Gold and Libya's Sharara, with multiple 1-million-barrel cargoes arriving or scheduled between May and early June.
On the product side, Kpler said the refinery posted record refined product exports of about 341,000 b/d in April, before easing to just under 250,000 b/d so far in May, as domestic deliveries absorbed a larger share of output.
Jet fuel exports averaged about 90,000 b/d in April, with flows primarily to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, while gasoline exports near 80,000 b/d were largely directed to West African markets, alongside a rare cargo shipment to Singapore.
However, secondary unit performance has weighed on product slate optimization. Kpler said straight-run fuel oil exports more than doubled in May to above 80,000 b/d, up from 38,000 b/d in April, as the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker operated below its 204,000 b/d nameplate capacity since late April.
However, despite the constraint, total runs are expected to remain in a 600,000 b/d to 650,000 b/d range, with strong domestic demand anchoring throughput. Domestic allocations have climbed to record levels above 250,000 b/d, with gasoline and diesel accounting for about 50% and 30%, respectively.
Kpler said the refinery's ability to sustain elevated throughput while balancing feedstock diversification and shifting product flows is positioning it as a key marginal supplier of gasoline and jet fuel in Atlantic Basin markets.