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Market Chatter: Vance Says US-Iran War Could End After Midterms as Conflict Enters New Phase

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The US conflict with Iran could enter a much different phase in a couple of months, Vice President J D Vance told the New York Post Tuesday, while agreeing that the war could end after the midterms.

Vance said Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz would continue to weaken ahead of the election, with the key energy route now carrying over 50% of normal traffic.

He said the timeline remains uncertain but noted that President Donald Trump will decide when the conflict starts and ends.

Vance also acknowledged public impatience over the prolonged conflict, while saying the US currently has no aggressive operations underway against Iran. Iranian forces have instead occasionally fired on commercial shipping, although Vance said those attacks have generally failed to hit their targets.

The White House did not immediately reply to' request for comment.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Futures Rise on Saudi Pipeline Attack, Vessel Strikes

Crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday as strikes on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of severe, long-term global supply disruptions.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures gained 1.8% to $101.89 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 1.7% to $106.39/bbl.Saudi Arabia has shut down the 7 million barrels per day pipeline, ING strategists said, adding that it's unclear how severe any potential damage is or how long it will be out of action.On Friday, Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline as a precaution after it came under multiple attacks in the Riyadh and Medina regions.The pipeline has served as a critical alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, and Gelber & Associates analysts said its closure threatens exports from Yanbu if repairs extend beyond the port's limited inventory buffer."The relatively contained price reaction suggests the market still expects Saudi inventories to cushion exports in the near term, but if the disruption extends beyond the five-to-seven-day inventory cushion, that could change quickly," said Janiv Shah, vice president, commodity markets - Oil at Rystad Energy.On the supply front, President Trump said on Monday that crude was flowing through the Hormuz and that countries benefiting from the strategic waterway's security should reimburse the US for the costs of protecting it.The latest data from Windward showed that 17 vessels crossed the strait as of Sunday, comprising 10 inbound transits along the southern US-assisted lane and seven on the northern Iranian-controlled lane.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Monday said that supertanker "Algaya" exploded after striking naval mines as the vessel tried to transit the Hormuz through a restricted zone south of the strategic waterway.The US President also claimed that Iran wants to reach a deal with the US, while making clear that he would decide whether Washington would negotiate."The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social. "I will determine whether or not the US will choose to engage..."Meanwhile, a meeting between Iran and the six-member bloc of Gulf countries to discuss the situation in Hormuz, originally scheduled to take place Monday in Oman, has been postponed after the attack on the pipeline.Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesperson of Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in televised remarks on Monday that Saudi Arabia's request to postpone the regional summit and attribute it to developments in Yemen is "a diversion from the root causes of this crisis."ING strategist said that the delay in the meeting between Iran and Gulf states pushes any prospect of de-escalation even further out of reach.

Oil & Energy

Crude Tanker Rates Hit New Highs as Hormuz Attacks Raise Shipping Risks, Kpler Says

Crude tanker rates hit new highs as escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz push shipping risks higher, Kpler said Monday.About 24 successful strikes have emerged over the past two weeks, with eight attributed to the US and the rest to Iran, sharply raising risks for crude shipping.Despite the attacks, US Navy convoys continue moving Gulf barrels, while owners and charterers remain willing to load under escort as higher risks translate into steeper freight costs.Very Large Crude Carrier freight from the Middle East Gulf to China reached $24 per barrel, while Gulf of Oman cargoes climbed to $12/bbl.Freight now accounts for 25% of crude value on Middle East Gulf shipments, up from 17% when the conflict began and about 5% before the war, Kpler said.For Gulf of Oman cargoes, freight represents 11% of crude value, showing how shipping costs increasingly determine the delivered price Asian refiners pay.Tanker rates outside the Middle East also reached their highest levels of the year as owners position ships for Gulf employment, leaving Atlantic Basin buyers competing harder for vessels.That competition is spreading the Hormuz risk premium across global tanker routes, even where ships have no direct exposure to the Strait, Kpler said.Kpler expects tanker rates to stabilize in the coming days, as another major increase in geopolitical risk would likely push the market toward fewer Gulf loadings instead of higher freight.Continued attacks could therefore reduce crude availability and Gulf tanker demand rather than trigger another proportional freight surge, creating a ceiling for rates despite elevated shipping risks.Higher freight costs are also pressuring Asian refiners, which need stronger refined-product margins to offset rising crude delivery expenses from the Middle East Gulf and Gulf of Oman.Refiners unable to pass those added costs to fuel buyers could face weaker economics, extending the tanker market squeeze across the broader oil complex, Kpler said.

Oil & Energy

Saudi Oil Exports Could Fall Up to 4 Million B/d if Pipeline Outage Persists, Kpler Says

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