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Market Chatter: Europe Risks Q4 Jet Fuel Shortage Despite Tapping Distant Supply Sources

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Europe faces the risk of a jet fuel shortfall in Q4 even as it seeks more distant sources for supplies like South Korea, whose jet fuel exports to Europe is on track to hit a four-year high this month, Reuters reported Monday, citing analysts and shipping data.

Europe has lost access to nearly half of its jet fuel imports due to the disruption to Middle East supplies since the commencement of the Iran nearly seven months ago and the continent has started importing more of such fuel from countries like Nigeria, the United States and Canada.

In September, South Korea became the largest jet fuel source for the region, with imports so far this month standing at 129,000 barrels per day, a peak since October 2022, the report said.

The continent remains vulnerable to further Middle East supply disruptions amid rising tensions, with consultancy Energy Aspects projecting a Q4 jet fuel deficit of 510,000 bbl/d in Q4, which compares to a surplus of 18,000 bbl/d in the US and 419,000 bbl/d in the Asia-Pacific region, the report added.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Commodities

US Natural Gas Prices Tick Up on Bullish Storage Data, Forecast for Widespread Heat

US natural gas prices were modestly higher for the week, amid a bullish storage build and lingering heat across much of the country.In the futures market, the Nymex front-month contract ended the week at $2.899 per million British thermal units on Friday, up from $2.820/MMBtu on Sept. 11.Natural gas spot prices rose to $3.01/MMBtu on Wednesday, up $0.20/MMBtu, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released on Thursday.This was primarily attributed to above-average temperatures across most of the South and Southwest, even as the heat retreated across the North and Northwest.Above-normal temperatures, however, are expected to blanket almost the whole of the country from Sept. through Oct. 1, keeping cooling gas demand elevated, according to the National Weather Service.Total US gas consumption dipped by 1%, or 0.8 billion cubic feet per day, largely due to a 1.2 Bcf/d, or 3% decline in power sector consumption, according to data from S&P Global.Meanwhile, LNG export feedgas flows edged lower during the week, at 18.6 Bcf/d, below the 30-day moving average of 18.78 Bcf/d, according to the Bloomberg LNG Feedgas Model.The net injection of working gas into storage, for the week ended Sept. 11, was 44 Bcf, up from last week's 40 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 3,298 Bcf, according to the EIA's weekly inventory data.However, the inventory gains were below the forecast net build of 49 Bcf, the prior year's build of 75 Bcf, and the five-year average of 74 Bcf for this period, according to data compiled by Investing.com, making it a fairly bullish report.At 3,298 Bcf, inventories were 118 Bcf, or 4% above the five-year average for this period, but 122 Bcf, or 4% below the same period last year.Most regions reported a net injection into storage during the week, with the Midwest showcasing the highest, at 26 Bcf, bringing its total inventories to 934 Bcf. The South Central and Pacific regions, however, reported net withdrawals of 5 Bcf and 1 Bcf, respectively.Pinebrook Energy Advisors noted that as the storage cushion continued to narrow, the market could see additional support, "even as generation demand begins to ease."A total of 36 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, the same as last week, with a total combined capacity of 138 Bcf, up 1 Bcf from last week.Meanwhile, the US gas rig count increased by two from 132 the previous week to 134 in the week ending Sept. 18, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. A year earlier, the US had 118 gas rigs in operation.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, decreased by six to 792 from 798 the previous week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $27.26/MMBtu for the week ended Sept. 16, $1.79/MMBtu above the prior week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $25.44/MMBtu, about $1.14/MMBtu above the prior week.

$BKR
Commodities

US Power Update: Prices Show Wide Regional Swings, With MISO Prices Above $1,200/MWh

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Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Flat on Strong Production, Healthy Inventories

US natural gas futures were essentially flat in after-hours trading on Friday, as strong production and healthy inventories limited gains despite late-summer heat supporting demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both edged down by a modest 0.07% to $2.899 per million British thermal units.Fundamentals remained broadly balanced as late-summer heat across much of the US supported demand, while cooling needs were expected to fade ahead of autumn."Pervasive warmer-than-normal weather has kept generation load elevated, but record production and generally healthy storage inventories continue to keep a lid on pricing," Pinebrook Energy Advisors said.Celsius Energy said power burn for the week ended Sept. 17 was 42.7 billion cubic feet per day, up 2.3 Bcf/d from the same week a year earlier, underscoring the impact of above-average temperatures across much of the country in mid-September.Looking ahead, the Commodity Weather Group said Friday that forecasts had shifted cooler, with above-average temperatures now expected to cover a smaller portion of the South and Southeast from Sept. 23 to Oct. 2. The shift reduced estimates for early autumn air-conditioning demand.LNG exports continued to support demand. Estimated net gas flows to US LNG export terminals remained strong at 19.2 Bcf/d on Friday, up 0.7% from a week earlier.The US Energy Information Administration said LNG-carrying capacity on the 36 vessels that departed US ports during the week ended Sept. 16 was 138 Bcf, up 1 Bcf from the previous week. The number of tankers was unchanged.Total Lower 48 state gas demand was 75.7 Bcf/d on Friday, down 0.6% from a year earlier, Barchart said, citing BNEF data.On the supply side, US Lower 48 dry gas production was 113.8 Bcf/d on Friday, up 4.9% from a year earlier.The EIA's weekly report on Thursday was supportive of natural gas prices, showing a 44 Bcf increase in US natural gas inventories for the week ended Sept. 11. The build was below expectations for around a 48 Bcf increase and the five-year weekly average of 74 Bcf.Natural gas inventories were down 3.9% from a year earlier but remained 3.7% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supplies.