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Market Chatter: Chinese Investment in Europe Surges to Highest Since 2018, Study Finds

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Chinese investment in Europe surged 67% to 16.8 billion euros, the highest level since 2018, German newspaper Handelsblatt reported, citing information obtained from Merics and the Rhodium Group.

Greenfield investments, where investors build new factories rather than buy companies, jumped 51% to nearly 9 billion euros, the report said.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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RBA Monetary Policy Committee Discussed Under-Pricing of Downside Risks of Middle East Conflict by Financial Markets, Minutes Show

The members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy committee discussed the possibility that financial markets were under-pricing downside risks associated with the Middle East conflict, noting that global equity prices had rebounded from an initial decline, according to the minutes of the committee's May meeting released on Tuesday.The members concluded that financial conditions in Australia had tightened over the course of the year, and that it remained unclear how restrictive financial conditions were at the time of the meeting. The case to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points at the meeting centered on the outlook for inflation.They observed that domestic economic conditions evolved broadly in line with the February forecasts and that recent data confirmed that capacity and inflationary pressures were elevated early in the year. Underlying inflation had remained high in the March quarter, but marginally lower than forecast in February.The central bank's staff's baseline forecast was for underlying inflation over the subsequent two years to be higher than previously expected, remaining above 3% until late 2027, and projected to return to 2.5% only in mid-2028, based on various assumptions.While riskier asset prices had moved in response to the conflict and the resultant increases in oil prices, the net change since the onset of the conflict had been modest. The conflict and associated rise in fuel prices had contributed to a sharp decline in consumer confidence, consistent with a higher cost of living.Corporate bond spreads in advanced economies retraced the rise observed immediately after the onset of the conflict and remained low relative to history. Measures of expected equity price volatility increased somewhat but remained well below the levels recorded during earlier episodes of heightened uncertainty.The impact of the conflict shifted market-implied paths for policy rates in advanced economies materially higher. Government bond yields also increased, particularly at longer maturities, largely driven by higher real yields. The rise in bond yields over the preceding six months was more pronounced in Australia than elsewhere, consistent with the progressive increase in expectations for the future policy rate over that period.

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International

Australian Consumer Confidence Rises as Inflation Expectations Ease

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence rose 2.3 points to 66.4 in the week of May 11 to May 17, ANZ reported Tuesday.The four-week moving average inched up 0.5 points to 66.4 points.Australian consumer confidence rose last week, with all subindices improving, but it remains near historically low levels since the series began in 1973, according to ANZ economist Sophia Angala.Weekly inflation expectations eased last week to their lowest level since early March, though they remain elevated, reflecting persistent pressure from higher fuel prices and the risk of second-round effects feeding through the broader economy, Angala added.Weekly inflation expectations fell to 6% from 6.4%, while the current financial condition indicator for 12 months rose 2.1 points to 60.4. The future financial conditions for the next 12 months increased to 75 points from 74.Short-term economic confidence for the next year rose 2.2 points to 58.1, while medium-term economic confidence for the next five years increased to 74.2 points from 71.8.The "time to buy a major household item" subcategory rose 3.8 points to 64.1.

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Market Chatter: India Mulls Raising Import Duty on Vegetable Oils

India is said to be looking at raising import duties on vegetable oils at the request of the domestic players, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday, citing sources.India is a major importer of vegetable oil, as it imports about 60% of its edible oil needs, the report said.The government is now evaluating whether higher taxes would help local farmers to get higher prices for their crops, said the sources cited in the report, adding that no decision on the matter has been taken yet.The discussion comes amid a series of measures being taken by the Indian government to restrict foreign exchange outflows to protect the weakening rupee and forex reserves.Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently requested citizens to restrict their purchase of imported goods such as vegetable oils, fertilizers, gold, and crude oil, to conserve foreign exchange.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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