Market Chatter: China's Q2 GDP Deflator to Turn Positive After Three Years, Analysts Say

China's second-quarter GDP deflator is projected to turn positive for the first time in over three years, state-owned China Daily reported Sunday, citing analysts and executives.

The GDP deflator, which measures price changes across all goods and services produced domestically, has been in the contraction zone for 12 straight quarters and stood at 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026, the report said.

Su Jian, director of Peking University's National Center for Economic Research, expects the Q2 GDP deflator to turn positive at around 1.9%, while Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, upgraded his full-year deflator projection to 0.5%, according to the report.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Federal Reserve Watch for July 10: Fed Policy Report Says FOMC Focused on Price Stability Ahead of Warsh Testimony

The Federal Reserve's semiannual policy report to Congress repeated comments from Fed officials that the FOMC will "deliver price stability," but markets will more focused on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first testimony as chair on July 14 and 15.Warsh's first day of testifying will coincide with the release of consumer price data for June.Recent comments of note:(July 9) New York Fed President John Williams (voter) said that he expects energy prices to slow this year even as tensions in the Middle East have picked up but would not comment on how the FOMC could act at its next meeting at the end of the month.(July 8) Minutes of the June 16-17 FOMC minutes showed considerable divisions among the participants regarding the path of monetary policy, most hinging on evolution of inflation. Many participants expected the recent elevated inflation is due to temporary factors that will dissipate and could allow the FOMC to maintain or even lower the target range, which others suggested that inflation will remain elevated and require rate increases.(July 6) Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voter) said that forward guidance is useful in some cases, including as tool in place of actual rate actions, but requires flexibility when conditions evolve differently from was expected.(July 1) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (voter) repeated that the FOMC will work to maintain price stability and said that prices are too high but again avoided giving any forward guidance.

Cargo Traffic to Los Angeles Port Expected to Rise in Week Ending July 25

Cargo traffic at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to rise in the week ending July 25, according to data from ship-tracking system Port Optimizer.A total of 124,582 20-foot equivalent units, a standardized measure of cargo capacity, are projected to reach the port in the week, the data showed. That volume reflects a 4.6% increase from the previous week and a 13% rise from a year earlier.Twenty-one freight vessels are scheduled to arrive at the port in the week ending July 25, the data showed. That compares with 22 vessels scheduled this week and 24 in the week ending July 18.

Market Chatter: China's Q2 GDP Deflator to Turn Positive After Three Years, Analysts Say

Related Articles

Federal Reserve Watch for July 10: Fed Policy Report Says FOMC Focused on Price Stability Ahead of Warsh Testimony

Cargo Traffic to Los Angeles Port Expected to Rise in Week Ending July 25

St. Louis Fed US Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate 1.717% Gain vs Previous 1.468% Gain

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International2d ago
Federal Reserve Watch for July 10: Fed Policy Report Says FOMC Focused on Price Stability Ahead of Warsh Testimony
The Federal Reserve's semiannual policy report to Congress repeated comments from Fed officials that the FOMC will "deliver price stability," but markets will more focused on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first testimony as chair on July 14 and 15.Warsh's first day of testifying will coincide with the release of consumer price data for June.Recent comments of note:(July 9) New York Fed President John Williams (voter) said that he expects energy prices to slow this year even as tensions in the Middle East have picked up but would not comment on how the FOMC could act at its next meeting at the end of the month.(July 8) Minutes of the June 16-17 FOMC minutes showed considerable divisions among the participants regarding the path of monetary policy, most hinging on evolution of inflation. Many participants expected the recent elevated inflation is due to temporary factors that will dissipate and could allow the FOMC to maintain or even lower the target range, which others suggested that inflation will remain elevated and require rate increases.(July 6) Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voter) said that forward guidance is useful in some cases, including as tool in place of actual rate actions, but requires flexibility when conditions evolve differently from was expected.(July 1) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (voter) repeated that the FOMC will work to maintain price stability and said that prices are too high but again avoided giving any forward guidance.

International2d ago
Cargo Traffic to Los Angeles Port Expected to Rise in Week Ending July 25
Cargo traffic at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to rise in the week ending July 25, according to data from ship-tracking system Port Optimizer.A total of 124,582 20-foot equivalent units, a standardized measure of cargo capacity, are projected to reach the port in the week, the data showed. That volume reflects a 4.6% increase from the previous week and a 13% rise from a year earlier.Twenty-one freight vessels are scheduled to arrive at the port in the week ending July 25, the data showed. That compares with 22 vessels scheduled this week and 24 in the week ending July 18.

International2d ago
St. Louis Fed US Q2 GDP Nowcast Estimate 1.717% Gain vs Previous 1.468% Gain