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Market Chatter: Australian Banks Face Weaker Loan Growth, Higher Losses as Housing Outlook Clouds, Says Morgan Stanley, The Australian Reports

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Australian Banks will be impacted by the changed property tax concessions, which will "fundamentally alter" the outlook for housing mortgage growth, which is expected to grow by just 3% in fiscal 2027, well below recent trends, according to a Friday report in The Australian, citing Morgan Stanley Analyst Richard Wiles.

Morgan Stanley has cut its price targets for all major banks by around 6%, the report said.

Owner occupiers will not be able to fill the gap left by expected flat investor loan balances in fiscal 2027, said Wiles.

Morgan Stanley expects weaker loan growth, new margin headwinds, higher loss rates, and greater scrutiny of capital buffers, resulting in further downgrades for major Australian banks, the report added.

According to the report, ANZ (ASX:ANZ, NZE:ANZ) is Wiles' top pick, while NAB (ASX:NAB), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA), and Westpac (ASX:WBC, NZE:WBC) are rated underweight.

Shares of ANZ, WBC, CBA, and NAB were down almost 1% each in recent Friday trade.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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