Major US banks could top second-quarter earnings expectations amid gains from capital markets activity, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) seen as having the "most interesting" setups heading into the results, BofA Securities said Tuesday.
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), State Street (STT), and Northern Trust (NTRS) may also raise their guidance for the second half of the year and 2027, the brokerage said. Several mega-cap banks are scheduled to release their quarterly results next week.
BofA revised its second-quarter earnings-per-share estimates for the eight banks by 1.8% on average, indicating year-over-year growth of 27%.
"Capital markets should drive EPS beats, but it is the non-capital markets results that are more likely to drive stock price action," BofA analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said in a note to clients. "While (Wall) Street tends to look past trading/investment banking beats, potential for positive net interest income revisions and stronger wealth management flows likely get rewarded despite a high bar."
JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have the "most interesting" setups heading into the latest prints, according to the note.
JPMorgan's stock offers "the most asymmetric risk/reward," BofA said. The brokerage revised its second-quarter EPS estimate for the banking giant to $5.59 from $5.48 amid robust capital markets revenue growth. BofA raised its price target on the stock to $408 from $362.
For Wells Fargo, the brokerage continues to expect second-quarter EPS of $1.72. It raised its price target on the lender's shares to $102 from $95. BofA, however, said investors must regain confidence that Wells Fargo can deliver superior growth without materially deviating from its 17% to 18% ROTCE guidance.
Citigroup's stock is discounting a "significant" improvement in its return on tangible common equity, which could lead investors to seek better entry points for the stock, BofA said. The brokerage is now projecting second-quarter EPS of $2.65 for the bank, up from $2.60 previously. BofA raised its price target on the stock to $176 from $170.
For Goldman, the brokerage now expects second-quarter EPS of $14.11, up from $13.18 previously. BofA boosted its price target on the stock to $1,150 from $1,050. "While there is little disagreement on the strong revenue backdrop for (Goldman), we believe investors will need to gain confidence in EPS/ROE defensibility, in order to gain comfort in holding the stock following the (year-to-date) outperformance," Poonawala said.
BofA raised its second-quarter EPS forecast for Morgan Stanley to $2.81 from $2.71, also citing stronger capital markets revenue growth. The brokerage lifted its price target on the shares to $250 from $225.
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