The Canadian dollar outlook is improving as broad US dollar weakness provides support for the loonie, despite limited expectations for Bank of Canada rate hikes, ING Global Markets Research said in a Thursday note.
While markets are pricing in about 15 basis points of BoC tightening by year-end, subdued inflation conditions suggest the Canadian central bank is unlikely to raise rates before mid-2027, said ING.
Underlying inflation pressures remain contained, with core inflation below both expectations and the BoC's 2% target in June. Despite higher energy prices in July, broader inflation risks remain limited, with headline inflation forecast to peak at 2.7% in the last quarter of the year, added the bank.
A dovish shift in Federal Reserve rate expectations is likely to weigh on the US dollar, a backdrop that has historically challenged the Canadian dollar against other G10 currencies. However, broader US dollar weakness could still drive USD/CAD toward 1.38 by year-end, according to ING.
The bank forecasts USD/CAD to be 1.37 in six months and 1.36 in one year.
Developments tied to the renegotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade remain a key downside risk for the loonie.
"USMCA headlines remain a dormant tail risk" for Canadian dollar, wrote ING in its note.