FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Latest US-Iran Hostilities Raise Oil Price Risks Into 2027, DBS Says

By

The latest escalation in hostilities between the US and Iran have resulted in a significant rise for oil price risks not just for 2026, but well into next year, DBS Group said in a note Tuesday.

The Singapore-based banking and financial institution raised its Brent price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by about $5, with prices now seen averaging between $85-$90 a barrel this year and $75-$80 next year.

According to DBS, even if the risk premium falls and a workable arrangement to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz is reached, prices are unlikely to dip below $80-$85/bbl for now due to uncertainty over how long any such deal is likely to last.

"After the recent lull and economic sanctions imposed on Iran, this new wave of attacks feels different than before when diplomacy and minor attacks were continuing at the same time," the note said.

"The chances of escalation have gone up a notch, and US strategy is not entirely evident, oscillating between different ways and means to force Iran to surrender or come back to the negotiating table."

A lasting deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz no longer appear likely in the near term, DBS said.

According to DBS, the ability of Gulf producers to reroute significant oil volumes despite attacks, limiting supply shortages, and the repeated withdrawal of US President Donald Trump from major escalations make a worst-case scenario less likely.

"Brent may briefly rise above $100/bbl, but is unlikely to stay there," the bank said.

Brent crude prices touched the $100 levels on Wednesday and were last seen trading at $99.81 a barrel.

Related Articles

Commodities

Nodal Exchange US Power Futures Share Reaches 55% In August

Nodal Exchange reported higher trading activity across power, natural gas, and environmental markets in August, with power futures volume rising 8% from July to 214.2 megawatt-hours.Nodal said US power futures open interest reached 1.451 billion MWh at August-end, giving the exchange a 55% share of the US power futures market.The exchange launched 168 hourly power futures contracts across 7 locations on Aug. 31, offering 24 hourly contracts per location with expiries covering the next 5 days.Natural gas futures volume reached 51.2 million MMBtu in August, up 61% from 31.8 million MMBtu a year earlier, while open interest rose by 147%.Environmental futures and options recorded 35,150 lots in August, while open interest ended at 454,313 lots, up 12% from a year earlier, Nodal said.Carbon futures and options posted 12,792 lots of volume and 70,505 lots of open interest, while renewable energy certificates recorded 20,739 lots and 365,799 lots, respectively.Nodal and IncubEx launched financially settled futures and options tied to daily price assessments from Oil Price Information Service on Aug. 17.The products include Washington Carbon Allowance versus California Carbon Allowance spread futures, as well as California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit futures and options."Managing risk in all of our markets is increasingly important, and we will continue to seek to best meet the evolving needs of the participants we serve," said Paul Cusenza, Chairman and CEO of Nodal Exchange.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop on Abundant Supplies and Late-Summer Cooling

US natural gas prices remained down in after-hours trading Tuesday as ample supplies and expectations for cooler weather later this month outweighed bullish near-term forecasts for heat across much of the country.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each fell 2.35% to $2.905 per million British thermal units.Above-average inventories and strong US production pressured prices despite near-term forecasts of hotter weather. Commodity Weather Group said forecasts had shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across the US South through Sept. 17. However, its 11-15 day outlook calls for noticeably cooler conditions in the second half of September. Later-month forecasts caused prices to drop as low as $2.863/MMBtu earlier in the day.Natural gas demand remained elevated through early September. Barchart, citing BNEF data, said Lower-48 gas demand was 76.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, up 12.3% from a year earlier. Celsius Energy said average daily powerburn for the week ended Sept. 7 was 45.4 Bcf/d, up 3.8 Bcf/d from the same week last year. However, powerburn fell to 41.2 Bcf/d on Sept. 7, Celsius said.Strong demand from LNG export facilities provided some support. BNEF data showed LNG feedgas flows were near capacity at 19.8 Bcf/d on Tuesday, up 1.9 Bcf/d from the previous week.But planned maintenance is expected to curb LNG feedgas demand in September and October. Natural Gas Intelligence reported that annual maintenance at Cove Point LNG in Maryland could reduce feedgas demand from Appalachia by about 850 MMcf/d for up to three weeks beginning Sept. 19.Strong production also weighed on the market. US output was estimated at 112.5 Bcf/d on Tuesday, while Canadian imports fell to 4.6 Bcf/d, according to Gelber & Associates, leaving the overall supply picture somewhat tighter than the previous week.But ample inventories more than offset the modest supply tightening. US natural gas stocks stood at 3,214 Bcf, 160 Bcf, or 5.2% above the five-year average, according to the latest weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration.

Commodities

US Power Update: Electricity Prices Mixed Tuesday As MISO Hits $378.30/MWh Peak

US electricity prices varied widely across major markets Tuesday afternoon, with natural gas dominating the fuel mix and intraday peaks reaching $378.30 per megawatt-hour, according to data from GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas' real-time locational marginal price stood at $22.62/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 47.14 gigawatts, with natural gas making up the largest share of the generation mix at 40.6%.California Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came in at $42.36/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 12.72 GW, with solar providing the largest share of the generation mix at 51.3%.Southwest Power Pool's real-time LMP was $28.92/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 40.72 GW, with natural gas holding the largest share of the generation mix at 35.7%.PJM's real-time LMP stood at $34.70/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 113.81 GW, while gas supplied the largest share of the generation mix at 41.3%. Prices rose to an intraday high of $276.35/MWh at 2:30 p.m. ET.Midcontinent Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came in at $35.44/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 84.37 GW, with natural gas making up the largest share of the generation mix at 32.8%. Prices climbed to an intraday peak of $378.30/MWh at 7:00 a.m. ET.New York Independent System Operator's real-time LMP was $45.56/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 19.61 GW, with dual fuel representing the largest share of the generation mix at 30.0%. Prices reached an intraday high of $202.70/MWh at 10:40 a.m. ET.ISO New England's real-time LMP stood at $62.38/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 12.43 GW, with natural gas providing the largest share of the generation mix at 46.1%.Independent Electricity System Operator's real-time LMP was $49.98/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 19.68 GW at 3:55 p.m. ET, with nuclear accounting for the largest share of the generation mix at 44.1%.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across much of the western and southern US from Sept. 16 to Sept. 22, with below-normal to near-normal readings across parts of the Midwest and Northeast.