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KOF: Forecasters Trim Swiss GDP Projection for 2026; Inflation Outlook Raised

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Professional forecasters revised their 2026 real seasonally adjusted gross domestic product growth estimate and inflation forecasts for Switzerland, according to a quarterly survey by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute published Monday.

According to the KOF Consensus Forecast for the second quarter, survey participants' 2026 growth expectations now stand at 0.9%, against the March survey projection of 1%.

Meanwhile, the 2027 and five-year GDP growth rate estimates were unchanged at 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively.

The forecasters also revised their average inflation rate projections upwards by 0.3 percentage points to 0.7% for 2026, and by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% for 2027. Conversely, inflation expectations for five years out remained at 0.9%.

The consensus unemployment rate assumption for 2026 held steady at 3.1%, while the 2027 outlook for the Swiss labor market ticked up to 3.1% from 3%.

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