FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

July Philadelphia Fed Regional Nonmanufacturing Activity Index Jumps

By

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's monthly nonmanufacturing activity index rose to 7.4 in July from minus 25.8 in the previous month, indicating expansion in the sector.

This is the first positive reading for the index since October 2024.

The readings for new orders, sales, prices and employment all increased in the month.

The six-month outlooks at both the regional and firm levels increased, with 28.4% of respondents expecting expansion in the region over the next six months, compared with 12.6% that expect contraction.

Related Articles

International

Rise in New Zealand Consumer Prices Sees Inflation Climb to Highest Level in Two Years, Westpac Says

New Zealand consumer prices increased by 1.5% in the June quarter, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 4.1%, up from 3.1% in the year to March and the highest level in two years, Westpac said in a report on Tuesday.The result was in line with Westpac's forecast, but slightly above the Reserve Bank's July forecast for 3.9% annual inflation.Much of the rise in inflation is attributed to increasing global oil prices since the start of the Middle East conflict, and while core inflation is softening, it remains above the Reserve Bank's 2% target midpoint, according to Satish Ranchhod, Westpac NZ senior economist.Oil prices have pulled back from their initial peak, but ongoing geopolitical tensions could keep them elevated for some time, with headline inflation anticipated to linger above 3% through the latter part of the year.While core inflation softening alleviates some concerns for the Reserve Bank, inflation remains high, leading to expectations of further rate hikes in September and December policy meetings, per the report.

^NZ50
International

Australian Consumer Confidence Rise as Household Purchase Sentiment Improves

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence rose 0.3 points to 75.6 in the week of July 13 to July 19, ANZ reported Tuesday.The four-week moving average rose 0.7 points to 75.4, per the report.Australian consumer confidence edged higher last week, with improved sentiment around major household purchases largely offset by "weaker confidence in personal finances and the economic outlook," according to ANZ economist Sophia Angala.The Reserve Bank of Australia may keep the cash rate unchanged in August, but renewed inflationary pressures could prompt a rate hike in November, despite expectations that rates will remain steady through the near term, Angala added.Weekly inflation expectations inched up to 5.8% from 5.7%, while the current financial condition indicator for 12 months increased 0.8 points to 66.1. The future financial conditions for the next 12 months fell to 82.5 points from 84.6.Short-term economic confidence for the next year fell 1.6 points to 67.7, while medium-term economic confidence for the next five years increased to 81.4 points from 80.6.The "time to buy a major household item" subcategory rose 3.8 points to 80.3.

ASX 200
International

New Zealand's June Quarter CPI Data Provides 'Mixed Signals' on Underlying Inflation, ANZ Says

The signal on underlying inflation in New Zealand's June quarter consumer price index (CPI) data was mixed and isn't likely to budge the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) from its policy stance, with the trimmed mean and weighted median measures accelerating, but the ex-fuel and energy measure slowing, ANZ said in a note on Tuesday.New Zealand's annual consumer inflation increased by 4.1% in the June quarter, up from a 3.1% increase in the 12 months to the March quarter. Tradable inflation accelerated 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% year-over-year.The bank reiterated its forecast of 25 basis point rate hikes at the central bank's September and October meetings.The June quarter could have marked the peak in annual inflation following the oil price shock; however, oil prices are rising again, and the RBNZ is unlikely to stop worrying about potential spillovers.Gradual progress on non-tradable inflation and broadly contained core inflation is also unlikely to impact the monetary policy committee's policy assessment.The committee will be concerned about the effect of the fuel shock on inflation expectations and firms' pricing behavior. Administrative price inflation is likely to remain elevated for an extended period. However, New Zealand's economy may still have ample disinflationary spare capacity.

^NZ50