Japan's Factory Activity Expands at Softer Pace in July

Operating conditions across Japan's manufacturing sector improved in July, with the final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, coming in at 54.5, according to data released on Monday.

The finalized reading, which acts as a principal indicator of overall factory conditions, missed the flash estimate of 54.7 and compared with the 54.8 recorded in the previous month.

A reading above 50 indicates an improvement in sector performance, while a figure below signals a deterioration.

Manufacturing output expanded at its fastest pace in nearly 12.5 years, while new orders grew at the quickest rate since January 2022, driven by robust demand for semiconductors and AI-related products.

New export orders also rose at the fastest pace in just over five years. Input cost inflation eased to its slowest since March, though higher oil and raw material prices kept cost pressures elevated.

Business confidence strengthened to a four-month high on expectations of stronger semiconductor demand.

Federal Reserve Watch for July 31: Fed Officials Explains Dissents, Would Prefer Gradual Rate Increases to Sudden Hikes

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voter) published a note explaining that he dissented from the FOMC's decision to hold its target rate steady because he believes that the Fed has a role to prevent temporary inflation increases from supply shocks from turning into entrenched inflation and that he prefers gradual rate increases to suddenly raising rates when the need arises.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (voter) said that she dissented in favor of a rate increase at the FOMC meeting due to elevated inflation, saying that "(m)odest action in the near term would reduce the likelihood of needing to take sharper action later."Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (voter) said that she dissented due to inflation being "too high for too long" and that the longer it remains elevated, the more difficult and costly it will be for the FOMC to bring it down. She added that high inflation is a larger issue than slow employment growth at the moment.Recent comments of note:(July 29) The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% and made no major changes to the statement, but three Fed presidents -- Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan -- dissented in favor of a 25-basis point rate increase. There was no update to the Summary of Economic Projections at the meeting.(July 29) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (voter) said that the FOMC will continue to act to deliver price stability, with its goal of 2% fully intact. Warsh added that markets have more recently been reacting to incoming data and events in the absence of Fed forward guidance. He also commented that the decision to maintain its target range had little to due to the softer consumer inflation data for June, repeating that the FOMC is focused on trends and not one piece of data.

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for July 31

The employment cost index rose 0.9% in Q2 after a 0.9% gain in the previous quarter, reflecting faster wage growth but slower benefits costs growth.The Chicago PMI rose to 57.6 in July from 56.7 in June, the last regional manufacturing reading for the month. The ISM's national index is due to be released on Aug. 3.The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July was revised higher to 55.2 from the preliminary estimate of 54.4 and was above June's reading of 49.5, but Michigan said that consumers remain concerned about high prices.Michigan said that inflation expectations were lower in July than in June but were still elevated.The Q3 GDPnow estimate from the New York Fed is a 2.5%, below the 2.6% gain in the previous estimate.

Japan's Factory Activity Expands at Softer Pace in July

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International2d ago
Federal Reserve Watch for July 31: Fed Officials Explains Dissents, Would Prefer Gradual Rate Increases to Sudden Hikes
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voter) published a note explaining that he dissented from the FOMC's decision to hold its target rate steady because he believes that the Fed has a role to prevent temporary inflation increases from supply shocks from turning into entrenched inflation and that he prefers gradual rate increases to suddenly raising rates when the need arises.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (voter) said that she dissented in favor of a rate increase at the FOMC meeting due to elevated inflation, saying that "(m)odest action in the near term would reduce the likelihood of needing to take sharper action later."Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (voter) said that she dissented due to inflation being "too high for too long" and that the longer it remains elevated, the more difficult and costly it will be for the FOMC to bring it down. She added that high inflation is a larger issue than slow employment growth at the moment.Recent comments of note:(July 29) The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% and made no major changes to the statement, but three Fed presidents -- Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan -- dissented in favor of a 25-basis point rate increase. There was no update to the Summary of Economic Projections at the meeting.(July 29) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (voter) said that the FOMC will continue to act to deliver price stability, with its goal of 2% fully intact. Warsh added that markets have more recently been reacting to incoming data and events in the absence of Fed forward guidance. He also commented that the decision to maintain its target range had little to due to the softer consumer inflation data for June, repeating that the FOMC is focused on trends and not one piece of data.

International2d ago
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for July 31
The employment cost index rose 0.9% in Q2 after a 0.9% gain in the previous quarter, reflecting faster wage growth but slower benefits costs growth.The Chicago PMI rose to 57.6 in July from 56.7 in June, the last regional manufacturing reading for the month. The ISM's national index is due to be released on Aug. 3.The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July was revised higher to 55.2 from the preliminary estimate of 54.4 and was above June's reading of 49.5, but Michigan said that consumers remain concerned about high prices.Michigan said that inflation expectations were lower in July than in June but were still elevated.The Q3 GDPnow estimate from the New York Fed is a 2.5%, below the 2.6% gain in the previous estimate.

International2d ago
New York Fed US Q3 GDP Nowcast Estimate 2.5% Gain vs Previous 2.6% Gain