The International Energy Agency expects to see further price volatility in 2026, with global oil inventories being depleted at a record pace since the Middle East war began in February amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In its May oil market report published Wednesday, the IEA said global oil supply fell to 95.1 million barrels per day in April, while observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 4 million barrels a day in March and April.
Looking ahead, global supply is anticipated to decline by 3.9 million barrels of oil per day on average in 2026, to 102.2 million barrels per day, under the assumption that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume from June.
Meanwhile, the IEA now expects oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day on an annual basis this year to 104 million barrels per day, which is 1.3 million-barrels-per-day below its projections before the war.