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IATA Warns One-Third of Global SAF Projects Face Cancellation

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The global aviation industry's ambitions to decarbonize through sustainable aviation fuel face significant hurdles, with as much as one-third of announced production capacity unlikely to come online by 2030, the International Air Transport Association said on Friday.

Though the aviation industry has touted nearly 200 SAF projects capable of producing 30 million tons of fuel by 2030, IATA said that about 60% of that capacity is likely to materialize.

The IATA report shows that only 35% of announced projects are operational or under construction, leaving the remainder in a precarious early stage and susceptible to cancellation.

The global aviation body's analysts now estimate that global output will likely peak at around 20 million metric tons by the end of the decade, falling short of the trajectories required to meet net-zero commitments.

"Converting announcements into operating capacity and allowing more projects to emerge requires predictable, well-sequenced policies and coordinated energy-system development," IATA said.

The IATA report also identifies a critical mismatch in technology adoption. The industry remains overly reliant on Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids, the only mature pathway capable of immediate scale, yet developers are struggling to fully leverage it.

IATA said emerging alternatives such as Alcohol-to-Jet and gasification Fischer-Tropsch are failing to achieve the necessary commercial maturity.

Meanwhile, investor and developer attention has increasingly pivoted toward Power-to-Liquid technology. However, analysts said this pathway is still in its infancy and unlikely to be produced at scale until near 2040, creating a dangerous supply gap in the intervening years.

Regionally, the Americas are expected to account for about 40% of global SAF production capacity by 2030, driven primarily by projects in the US. Europe, North Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region are projected to contribute a combined 12 Mt of capacity.

IATA said Asia-Pacific currently has the most advanced project pipeline, with more than 40% of the region's announced SAF capacity already operational. Africa and the Middle East, by contrast, are expected to lag despite possessing abundant feedstock resources.

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