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Hormuz Ship Transits Rise, But Crude Tanker Flows Remain Well Below Pre-Crisis Levels

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Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose slightly on Wednesday even as US military strikes on Iranian targets and renewed attacks on shipping in the Red Sea raise security risks.

Strait of Hormuz crossings increased to 15 confirmed transits on Wednesday, up 66.7% over the day from nine crossings recorded the previous day, according to MarineTraffic data.

Vessel routing remained concentrated around the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, with eight of the total 15 crossings, MarineTraffic data showed. The International Maritime Organization's Hormuz Traffic Separator Scheme accounted for four crossings, while three crossings were "Route Undetermined."

Although Gulf producers continue loading export cargoes, Kpler said confirmed crude tanker transits through the Hormuz have fallen by about 75% from pre-crisis levels.

The sharp decline has left growing volumes of crude accumulating inside the Persian Gulf as shipowners delay sailings, reassess security risks or wait for naval protection.

The disruption is spreading beyond the Strait into the Red Sea, raising concerns that two of the world's key oil shipping corridors are simultaneously coming under pressure.

According to MarineTraffic, Bab el-Mandeb transits also ticked up, with 43 confirmed transits on Wednesday, up 22.9% over the day from 35. "Traffic remained balanced by direction, with 21 vessels entering the Red Sea and 22 exiting," MarineTraffic reported.

However, MarineTraffic analysts cautioned that vessel behaviour in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continues to remain "sensitive," following the Houthi movement's warnings to Saudi Arabian shipping flows.

There have been a total of five westbound ships that have U-turned around the Gulf of Aden approach, while six additional U-turns have been identified inside the Red Sea.

MarineTraffic data showed two China-linked Very Large Crude Carriers successfully transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday carrying a combined 4 million barrels of Saudi crude.

One of them, a Singapore-flagged vessel briefly reversed course and paused in the central Red Sea before resuming its southbound voyage, followed by the other vessel flagged to Hong Kong.

Kpler said that ffshore ship-to-ship transfers remain active but at lower volumes than before the conflict intensified, limiting the industry's ability to offset the bottleneck.

The latest escalation follows continued US military operations against Iran.

The US Central Command said on its forces completed a 12th consecutive night of strikes on Wednesday, targeting Iranian maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance systems and air-defense assets.

"Since resuming the naval blockade against Iran nine days ago, Centcom has redirected 12 commercial vessels and disabled 1 to prevent ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports or coastal areas," Centcom said in a post on X.

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained subdued on Wednesday, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations, with vessels continuing to use both the southern Omani corridor and the northern Iranian-controlled route.

Operators remained cautious following previous attacks, while several companies delayed or rescheduled voyages.

UKMTO said Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained an active presence around the waterway through radio hailing, drone overflights and surveillance of merchant vessels. The advisory also warned that the risk from drifting or uncharted naval mines remains elevated around established shipping lanes.

The maritime agency reported that a vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile, triggering a fire that crew members were attempting to extinguish.

The incident follows a confirmed Houthi attack on Saudi tankers in the southern Red Sea, heightening concerns that the Iran-backed group has shifted from deterrence to active targeting of commercial shipping.

The developments have heightened concerns that disruptions could increasingly affect both the Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb simultaneously, two maritime chokepoints through which global crude and refined products normally pass.

The IMO's daily Strait of Hormuz incident tracker showed one confirmed attack so far this week. This brings the total number of confirmed maritime security incidents in the region to 61 as of Thursday.

The IMO tracker provides a daily log of verified strikes on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, with the earliest incident recorded on March 1.

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