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US Natural Gas Update: Prices Gain Over 2.5% on Hotter Late-July Forecast

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US natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trading on Wednesday as warmer weather forecasts boosted sentiment and traders positioned ahead of Thursday's weekly storage report.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose by 2.62% to $2.940 per million British thermal units.

Pinebrook Energy Advisors noted prices are now flat to modestly higher than a week ago, although they remain well below levels seen a month earlier.

The Wednesday advance was largely driven by updated weather forecasts. Barchart, citing Commodity Weather Group data, said forecasts for late July shifted hotter across the central US, while Pinebrook Energy Advisors said persistent heat across Texas and the US Southwest continued to support cooling demand.

However, Energy Aspects said 2026 is on track to record the lowest cooling degree day-to-billion cubic feet ratio since 2020, suggesting less natural gas is being consumed for air conditioning despite some elevated temperatures.

Gains were capped by Tropical Storm Bertha, which is forecast to track along the US Gulf Coast and much of the US LNG infrastructure over the next two days.

The storm could disrupt LNG export infrastructure or shipping activity, potentially leaving gas originally destined for overseas markets in the domestic supply system.

Market participants are also awaiting the US Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report due on Thursday.

Wall Street Journal analysts expect a 34 Bcf storage injection for the week ended July 17, down from a 41 Bcf build the previous week but still slightly above the five-year average injection of 30 Bcf.

On the demand side, Aegis Hedging said US power-sector gas consumption eased to 49.3 Bcf on Wednesday after exceeding 50 Bcf per day for three consecutive sessions earlier this week. Total demand on Wednesday averaged 80.6 Bcf/d, up 6.3% on the year.

LNG export feedgas flows reached 17.9 Bcf/d, up 7.9% from the previous week, well below capacity as Freeport LNG continues maintenance through August.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said Wednesday that warm weather around the globe, combined with supply disruptions in the Middle East, has boosted export prices.

It said the Asian benchmark LNG price for September delivery has climbed above $19/MMBtu, more than double market expectations at the start of the year, underscoring robust global demand and continued tightness in international gas markets.

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