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Henry Hub Gas Prices May Rise Toward $4.5/MMBtu by 2029, TPH Energy Says

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Stronger Permian gas supply growth could pressure US natural gas prices toward $3 per million British thermal units from its current $3.5/MMBtu outlook, TPH Energy said Thursday.

European investors focused heavily on natural gas markets during TPH Energy meetings in London, with discussions centered on near-term supply growth and long-term demand expectations.

Investors closely tracked Haynesville production trends, with TPH Energy expecting private operators to drive supply growth in the second half of 2026.

Clients also focused on Permian Basin gas production ahead of the Hugh Brinson and Blackcomb pipeline startups planned for the Q4 of 2026, TPH Energy said.

TPH Energy estimates that about 1 billion cubic feet per day of gas could remain behind pipe before new projects begin operations, although investor expectations ranged between 1.5 Bcf/d and 2 Bcf/d.

The firm said stronger-than-expected Permian supply growth could push its 2027 end-of-season storage estimate above 4.1 trillion cubic feet and lower gas prices toward $3/MMBtu to $3.25/MMBtu.

TPH Energy also highlighted growing interest in Northeast gas markets, where regional power demand and long-haul pipeline expansions could increase capacity demand to 10 Bcf/d by 2030.

TPH currently models about 3 Bcf/d of Northeast power demand and expects stronger regional demand to improve pricing conditions for producers, including Antero Resources (AR), EQT (EQT), Expand Energy (EXE), and Range Resources (RRC).

By 2030, Gulf Coast supply-demand balances could leave the market undersupplied even if Permian output fully utilizes pipeline capacity and Haynesville production continues growing at maximum rates, TPH Energy said.

TPH Energy expects Henry Hub gas prices to rise toward $4.5/MMBtu by 2029 to narrow the gap with international prices, while Western Haynesville wells may require $4.25-$4.5/MMBtu returns to support development.

Price: $37.77, Change: $-0.21, Percent Change: -0.55%

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