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Industrial Electrification to Drive Nearly Half of US Load Growth by 2035, Enverus Says

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US electrification could add 24 gigawatts of incremental power demand by 2035 and 78 GW by 2050, Enverus Intelligence Research said in a Tuesday analysis.

Electrification should account for about 4.1% of total US electricity demand by 2035 as industries and buildings replace fuel-based systems with electric alternatives, the analysis said.

PJM Interconnection, Midcontinent Independent System Operator and New York Independent System Operator should capture 69% of added load by 2035 because of strong industrial demand and heating transitions, Enverus said.

The analysis expects some regions to post flat or declining demand as efficient heat pumps offset new electricity consumption and reduce overall energy use.

Senior analyst Kevin Kang said industrial demand and heating transitions are emerging as major drivers of US electricity load growth, with impacts expected to vary significantly across regional power markets.

"At the same time, efficiency gains and regional differences in heating technology mean the impact on load is not uniform and will reshape grid dynamics, including increased winter sensitivity and market volatility," Kang said.

Industrial electrification should contribute 11.4 GW of incremental demand by 2035, representing 47% of total projected load growth.

Commercial sector should add 6.8 GW, or 29% of demand growth, while residential electrification should contribute another 5.7 GW, or 24%, Enverus said.

Regions with heavy gas and oil heating use should see stronger power demand growth, while efficient heat pumps may reduce load growth in areas using electric resistance heating, Enverus said.

State electrification mandates could increase load growth by 27% in ISO New England and 21% in New York ISO by 2035 while also increasing winter market volatility, according to Enverus.

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