The fuel price for consumers in New Zealand is driven by a combination of global and domestic factors, but global variables are currently the most relevant influence, ANZ said in its weekly Fuel Market Watch report on Friday.
The top global factors include the US dollar price of crude oil, refining margins, international freight and insurance costs, as well as the exchange rate for the New Zealand dollar, based on which those costs are converted into local currency.
Meanwhile, domestic influences on the price include the cost of distributing fuel, other wholesaler and retailer costs and margins, and taxes and levies, ANZ said.
The bank said forecasting the New Zealand consumer price index has become a lot more complex in recent weeks, as any estimate must be selective about which oil market to look at, refining margins, and freight costs, among other factors.
"Gone are the days where any global crude benchmark price converted into [New Zealand dollars] will give you a pretty good steer on the quarterly change in prices at the pump," ANZ said.