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Federal Reserve Watch for Sept. 24: Fed Officials Say Further Rate Increases May be Needed

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New York Fed President John Williams (voter) said that it is "reasonable" to expect that the FOMC will need to raise rates further this year, adding that the decision would be based on incoming data rather than mapped out plan.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (voter) said that she supported the rate increase at the September FOMC meeting and said that she expects further rate increases may be needed to return inflation to its 2% goal.

Recent comments of note:

(Sept. 23) Fed Governor Michael Barr (voter) said that he supported the rate increase at the most recent FOMC meeting, adding that further increases will likely to be needed to help bring down inflation and restore price stability.

(Sept. 22) Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (nonvoter) said inflation risks are a greater concern at the moment for the FOMC than growth and employment risk, resulting in the 25-basis point rate increase that the most recent FOMC meeting, but did not forecast the rate path going forward.

(Sept. 21) Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (nonvoter) said that strong demand could also be driving inflation and that the Fed's job of lower the pace of price growth back down to the 2% goal may necessitate further rate increases that could negatively impact employment and economic growth.

What else is happening in International?

International

RBA Forecast to Hike Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points in September Meeting, BofA Securities Says

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% on Sept. 29, with the decision likely to be unanimous, BofA Securities said in a note on Wednesday.If the August consumer price index data leads the firm to revise its September quarter trimmed mean inflation forecast to 1% quarter-over-quarter, it will then forecast a further 25 basis points cash rate hike in November.The central bank's communication is likely to emphasize that inflation is too high with upside risks, the labor market remains tight, and growth is resilient.

ASX 200
International

New Zealand New Residential Mortgage Lending Falls in August

Total new residential mortgage lending in New Zealand fell to NZ$7.19 billion in August from NZ$7.85 billion in July, according to data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand released on Thursday.Residential mortgage lending to first home buyers fell to NZ$1.48 billion in August from NZ$1.58 billion in the previous month. Lending to other owner-occupiers decreased to NZ$4.23 billion from NZ$4.68 billion.Residential mortgage lending to investors fell to NZ$1.4 billion from NZ$1.48 billion, while that for business purposes decreased to NZ$84 million from NZ$109 million.Total new residential lending at a loan-to-valuation ratio above 80% came in at NZ$1.2 billion in August for all borrower types, down from NZ$1.26 billion in July.Residential mortgage lending, where the loan-to-valuation ratio is equal to or below 80%, was NZ$5.99 billion for all borrower types, down from NZ$6.59 billion in the previous month.

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International

ANZ Raises New Zealand Farmgate Milk Price Forecast to NZ$9.80 Per kgMS for 2026/27

ANZ revised its farmgate milk price forecast for the 2026/27 season up to NZ$9.80 per kilogram of milk solids from NZ$9.20, with rising oil prices simultaneously supporting milk powder prices while pushing the New Zealand dollar lower, according to a Thursday report by the bank.The bank said potential escalation or resolution of the Middle East conflict remains the key risk to the forecast, given the strong correlation between milk powder and oil prices and the likelihood that oil price volatility will persist.ANZ noted that Fonterra's (ASX:FCG) 2025/26 payout has been finalized at NZ$9.69 per kilogram of milk solids, with farmers and shareholders earning a combined NZ$12.42 per kilogram of milk solids for the year once dividends and the tax-free capital return from the sale of the co-operative's consumer business are included.

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