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Federal Reserve Watch for Sept. 22: Inflation Risks Larger Concern than Growth Risks, Barkin Says

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Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (nonvoter) said inflation risks are a greater concern at the moment for the FOMC than growth and employment risk, resulting in the 25-basis point rate increase that the most recent FOMC meeting, but did not forecast the rate path going forward.

Recent comments of note:

(Sept. 21) Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (nonvoter) said that strong demand could also be driving inflation and that the Fed's job of lower the pace of price growth back down to the 2% goal may necessitate further rate increases that could negatively impact employment and economic growth.

(Sept. 18) Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (nonvoter) said that he agreed with the FOMC's decision to raise the target for federal funds rate by 25 basis points, saying that inflation remains elevated.

(Sept. 16) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that inflation remains elevated while the labor markets is strong, leading the FOMC to act to slow inflation at is meeting. Warsh repeated that the labor market remains strong and the economy as a whole is strengthening, putting the emphasis on lowering inflation.

(Sept. 16) At its meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the target range for its federal funds to 3.75% to 4.00% saying that inflation remains elevated and raising the target range will "support a timelier return to the Committee's 2% goal." The updated Summary of Economic Projections suggested a further rate increase is possible for 2026, followed by no adjustment in 2027 before the rate is reduced in 2028. However, nearly half of the participants said one more increase may be needed in 2027, so the median could shift at the next update.

What else is happening in International?

International

South Korea Targets 2.5 Million Public Rental Homes by 2030

South Korea plans to increase its long-term public rental housing stock to more than 2.5 million units by 2030 from 1.931 million units in 2024, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said Monday.The target is part of a broader plan to supply about 1.19 million public rental and for-sale homes through 2030, including roughly 920,000 units in the Seoul metropolitan area.The nation's housing supply rate rose to 102.9% in 2024 from 100.5% in 2010, while average living space per person increased to 36 square meters from 25.8 square meters over the same period, the ministry said.

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International

South Korean Bank Loan Delinquency Rate Rises to 0.63% in July

The delinquency rate on won-denominated loans at South Korea's domestic banks rose to 0.63% in July from 0.57% a year earlier, according to data released Tuesday by the Financial Supervisory Service.Business loan delinquencies climbed to 0.78% in July from 0.67% in July 2025. Large-company loans rose to 0.36% from 0.14%, while SME loans increased to 0.91% from 0.82%. Household loan delinquency fell to 0.42% from 0.43%.The volume of newly delinquent loans increased by 600 billion won on a month-on-month basis in July, while that of resolved loans declined by 3.9 trillion won, the regulator said.

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International

RBI Swap Facility Attracts $143.6 Billion in Forex Inflows

India received $143.60 billion in foreign exchange inflows under the Reserve Bank of India's swap facility as of Sept. 18, according to the central bank.Foreign currency non-resident bank deposits, or FCNR(B) deposits, accounted for $132.98 billion of the inflows.Overseas foreign currency borrowings contributed $5.32 billion, while external commercial borrowings added $5.30 billion, according to the data.

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