Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said Friday that inflation is the more concerning part of the Fed's dual mandate, recommitting to the 2% inflation goal and repeating his belief that forward guidance can handcuff the Fed from making decisions.
Warsh was speaking at the annual Jackson Hole Fed Symposium, a platform that Fed officials typically use to make major announcements.
Warsh, as expected, did not offer any change to the monetary policy outlook but strongly reaffirmed his commitment to the Fed's mandates while offering little guidance on the timing of rate changes.
"The Fed's price-stability objective of 2%, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, is a firm, fixed target," Warsh said. "Let's be equally clear about another aspect of the objective: Price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting. It is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices."
Warsh noted that the current labor market indicators, while slowing, are still consistent with full employment.
"But on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning," Warsh said adding later in his speech that the Fed's focus should be on price.
"Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed," Warsh said. "Otherwise, we have work to do."
Since assuming his position, Warsh has continually emphasized the need for the Fed to not restrain itself into an implied policy path with excess forward guidance, particularly when it is based on outdated information.
Warch argued that while it forward guidance has its place during times of crisis such the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 or most recently the pandemic period, it has "overstayed its welcome."
"In normal times, the role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed," Warsh said. "Otherwise, it risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity. Oversharing policy deliberations and overcommitting to future decisions can lead markets, businesses, and households astray."
Warsh argued that by pre-committing to a policy path inhibits the ability to make decisions when the time comes, which it may have done in the past.
"I'm not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation," Warsh said.