European power markets are facing renewed supply risks as weak hydropower output in parts of the region persists, while a potential strike at France's EDF adds uncertainty ahead of the autumn demand season, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Wednesday.
RBC analysts said hydropower generation in Austria fell 44% year-over-year in August and was 45% below its eight-year average for the month. Output was also 32% below the historical average year to date, making 2026 the weakest year in the consultancy's dataset.
Germany's Bavaria region recorded a 20% year-over-year decline in August hydro output, while generation was 15% below its eight-year average. RBC said that year-to-date output was 11% below the historical average.
Sweden also saw weak generation, with August output down 21% year-on-year and 18% below the eight-year average. Finnish output, by contrast, jumped 75% year-on-year in August and was 28% above its historical average, although the comparison was boosted by exceptionally weak output a year earlier.
Weakness in several key hydro markets could support European power prices, particularly if thermal generation is needed to fill the supply gap.
EDF workers in France are threatening a 24-hour strike from Sept. 14 over the potential removal of discounted energy rates for employees. The action comes as the country's nuclear fleet already faces maintenance-related outages.
French nuclear output stood at 39 gigawatts on Sept. 8 and is unlikely to rise materially above 40 GW in the near term, RBC said, citing S&P Global Energy CERA. September generation is forecast to average about 39.7 GW, about 2% below the same month last year.
RBC said that the strike could also put pressure on planned reactor restarts. Nine reactors are scheduled to return over the next two weeks, raising the possibility that industrial action could delay some of those restarts.
French October power prices are trading at about 136 euros per megawatt-hour ($158), the consultancy said, their highest front-month close in almost three years, supported by elevated gas prices and nuclear availability concerns.
Spain's expanding data center sector is also facing uncertainty after proposed rules would require large data centers to source at least 80% of their electricity from new renewable generation on an hourly matching basis.
Amazon is lobbying the Spanish government to exempt projects with existing permits and committed capital from the proposed requirements, seeking to protect its planned 33.7-billion-euro investment program through 2035, centered in Aragon.
RBC said the proposed rules could slow the development of Spain's data center industry, with developers and other stakeholders likely to lobby for softer requirements.
Meanwhile, Andel Holding, Orsted's third-largest shareholder, is selling about 3 billion Danish Krone ($466.7 million) of shares in the Danish offshore wind developer.
The utility cooperative sold 22.8 million shares at 135.50 Danish Krone each through an accelerated bookbuild, a 4.78% discount to Orsted's previous closing price. The transaction will reduce Andel's stake from 5% to 3.28%.
RBC said that the latest disposal is about equivalent to the amount Andel invested in that fundraising.
Spanish renewable energy firm Grenergy is due to report first-half results on Sept. 16. RBC expects EBITDA of about 126 million euros, net income of 82 million euros and net debt of around 1.1 billion euros.
The results are expected to include a capital gain from the sale of the Gabriella project to CVC for $475 million, with an expected gain, including the earn-out, of about $150 million.