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EU Commission Revises Eurozone GDP Growth, Inflation Rate Forecasts in Spring Report

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The European Commission on Thursday revised its economic forecasts for the eurozone, expecting a slowdown in growth as the Middle East conflict-driven energy shock fuels inflation.

According to the bloc's Spring 2026 Economic Forecast report, the euro area's gross domestic product is now expected to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, down from the 1.2% and 1.4% provided in the Autumn report published in November 2025. Meanwhile, economic growth in the European Union is anticipated to ease to 1.1% in 2026 from the previous estimate of 1.4%, before ticking up to 1.4% in 2027, lower than the expected 1.5% earlier.

On the consumer prices front, the commission expects the euro area's annual inflation rate to reach 3% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, above the prior projections of 1.9% and 2%, respectively. Additionally, EU inflation is projected at 3.1% in 2026, a 1 percentage point upward revision from the previous outlook, before slowing to 2.4% the following year. Inflation in 2027 was previously expected at 2.2%.

"Headline inflation is now set to peak in 2026 before easing in 2027, as energy commodity prices are expected to gradually decline, albeit remaining around 20% above pre-war levels," the report said.

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