Equinor's (EQNR) strategic update highlighted plans to improve underlying free cash flow and margins, supported by growth in its international upstream portfolio and a shift toward production outside the Norwegian Continental Shelf, RBC Capital Markets said in a Wednesday note.
The firm said it sees Equinor's international production to rise to about 850 kboed by 2030, supported by projects including Bacalhau, Raia and Sparta, up from around 650 kboed in 2025, though still below the company's 950 kboed target. The shift could boost cash flow per barrel due to lower taxes on the international front, it added.
RBC said Equinor is expected to maintain disciplined annual investment of around $12 billion, support about 5% annual dividend growth, and execute $4 billion in buybacks from 2027 under an $80 per barrel Brent assumption.
The firm flagged a cautious outlook on gas market conditions and highlighted execution risks in offshore wind and international expansion, but said Equinor's strategy increases optionality through new basin entries, and growth in asset-backed trading and power segments.
RBC maintained its underperform rating on the stock with a price target of 360 Norwegian kroner ($37.85).
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