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EMEA Oil Update: Oil Gains as US-Iran Peace Plan Remains Uncertain; Heads for Weekly Loss

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Crude futures gained on Friday as energy markets remained heavily whipsawed amid deepening US-Iran diplomatic gridlock over nuclear assets and shipping tolls, but are headed for a weekly loss.

The Brent futures contract gained about 1% to $103.58 per barrel. Murban futures added 1.3% to $103.43/bbl. However, both contracts were headed for a weekly decline this week.

"Uncertainty surrounding a US-Iran deal abounds as we head into the weekend, leaving the market susceptible to seesaw price moves if any fresh noise emerges," ING analysts said.

On the nuclear front, Washington continues to demand the complete physical transfer of Tehran's highly enriched uranium stockpile out of the country-a condition that directly conflicts with recent hardening statements from Iran's leadership.

Compounding the geopolitical friction is a highly disputed Iranian proposal to establish a formal tolling and transit fee system through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking at an Environmental Protection Agency event at the White House on Thursday, US president Donald Trump rejected any permanent maritime taxing system, reiterating that the US treats the chokepoint as a completely free international waterway.

"Uncertainty over a potential deal is reflected in oil prices, with the market being whipsawed by headlines," ING noted.

Market analysts warn that establishing a formal state-run tolling framework in the Gulf would set a highly destabilizing precedent for global freedom of navigation.

Beneath the ongoing geopolitical positioning, physical underlying supply balances are tightening severely.

The global oil market could enter a "red zone" in July or August as peak summer demand collides with disrupted Middle East exports and rapidly depleting inventories, the executive director of the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

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