FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Oil Update: Murban Slips to Pre-War Levels as Supply Fears Ease

By

Brent oil futures extended losses while Murban crude futures tumbled to pre-war levels on Tuesday as breakthroughs in US-Iran talks defused energy supply anxieties following weeks of severe market disruptions.

The front-month Brent contract fell 0.5% at $77.59 per barrel and hovered near early-March levels. Murban futures hit their lowest since Feb. 18 earlier in the session and were down 0.8% at $70.23/bbl.

The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued "General License X" on Monday, granting a 60-day waiver that permits the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude, petroleum products, and petrochemicals through Aug. 21.

"Brent crude trades near $77.50 and is lower for a second day as US-Iran talks continue. Additional pressure followed the US decision to issue a 60-day sanctions waiver, allowing limited sales of Iranian crude and refined products," Saxo Bank analysts said.

"The move should facilitate the export of some of the estimated 30 million barrels that left Iranian ports last week," the analysts said.

However, near-term price volatility hinges on the normalization of Persian Gulf upstream production and transit speeds through the Hormuz chokepoint, ING analysts noted.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts Brent will to average $92 per barrel in 2026 and drop to $78 per barrel in 2027, contingent on transit via the Strait of Hormuz normalizing by August.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Futures Drop After US Authorizes Iranian Crude Sales

Crude oil futures fell in after-hours trading on Monday after the US issued a temporary license authorizing the sale of Iranian crude and petroleum products, easing supply concerns and signaling significant progress in negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 1.8% to $75.15 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 3.2% to $78.28/bbl.Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said the prospect of strong supply, combined with softer Chinese demand, has weighed on prices and reduced the war-related risk premium.The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued "General License X" on Monday, granting a 60-day waiver that permits the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude, petroleum products, and petrochemicals through Aug. 21.The waiver also allows for the importation of Iranian crude oil and other petrochemical and petroleum products into the US."In line with the ongoing productive talks in Switzerland, Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into their country," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X.TankerTrackers said Iran has exported 36 million barrels of crude oil since June 15, and about an equal amount remains afloat in Iran.Meanwhile, the US and Iran on Monday made progress during peace talks aimed at reaching a final deal within 60 days, including an agreement to end hostilities in Lebanon.Vice President J D Vance said that talks between the US and Iran have made "great progress."Earlier on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, had managed to ease some of the tensions over Lebanon."Tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War," Araghchi said in a social media post on X. "Oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran."On the supply front, the latest shipping data show an uptick in oil and liquefied natural gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the 19-21 June period, though overall flows remain below pre-conflict levels.Kpler said a total of 71 confirmed vessel transits via the strategic waterway, with activity peaking at 35 crossings on Saturday.However, tanker traffic via the Strait remains about 15% below pre-conflict levels, EBW Analytics said, adding that alternative supply routes and weakening Asian demand are helping loosen balances.

Oil & Energy

Middle East Supply Losses Top 1.2 Billion Barrels as Recovery Takes Shape, Kpler Says

Middle Eastern oil supply could return faster than expected as tanker movements improve and producers prepare to restore output, Kpler said in a Monday note.Recent Israeli strikes have delayed the formal signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, while renewed attacks in southern Lebanon added fresh uncertainty to negotiations, according to Kpler.Switzerland's Foreign Ministry said US-Iran talks had been postponed. At the same time, reports indicated the US lifted its naval blockade on Iranian shipping, creating conditions for a gradual recovery in exports.Cargo-tracking data showed more Iranian-linked tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz with AIS active. A few very large crude carriers reappeared on tracking systems after extended periods of limited visibility.Kpler estimates that over 10 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude and condensate production remained offline as of June 19, resulting in cumulative losses exceeding 1.2 billion barrels.Kuwait may restore production faster than expected after Kuwait Petroleum said it aims to increase output by 2 million b/d within one week.Kpler estimates Kuwaiti production could rise from about 950,000 b/d in June to 2 million b/d in July and nearly 2.4 million b/d in August, compared with pre-war output of 2.74 million b/d.Kpler said limited storage, with inventories near 50% capacity, and the availability of tanker vessels could support a quicker recovery in Kuwaiti exports, although prolonged restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz could slow the pace.Iran could also recover output rapidly if export restrictions continue to ease. Kpler estimates that Iranian crude production fell by as much as 1.3 million b/d during the blockade, largely because exports stopped rather than because oil fields were damaged.The firm expects Iran's crude production to reach 3.4 million b/d by August, exceeding pre-conflict levels of 3.2 million b/d to 3.3 million b/d. Kpler said Iran's export system can recover more quickly than many neighboring producers once shipping routes normalize.Saudi Arabia and the UAE could return to pre-conflict production levels within several weeks to two months. Saudi inventories remain about 55% full, while UAE inventories stand near 44%, allowing both countries to support exports while tanker traffic recovers.Kpler expects Middle Eastern crude and condensate outages to fall to roughly 1.2 million b/d by the end of August. The firm forecasts Saudi Arabia and the UAE will return to pre-war production levels by August, while Iraq and Kuwait should recover by November.

Oil & Energy

LNG Trade Remains Resilient as Hormuz Traffic Gradually Recovers, Vortexa Says

LNG trade remained largely stable across Asia and Europe last week as buyers monitored developments around the Strait of Hormuz and signs of easing supply disruptions, Vortexa said Monday in its LNG Weekly.Asia imported 4.9 million tons of LNG across 79 cargoes. China received 1.4 million metric tons on 24 cargoes as warmer weather boosted cooling demand, while Japan imported 1.1 million mt across 17 cargoes.South Korea received 600,000 mt on nine cargoes, more than 15% below its recent average. India's imports fell to 500,000 mt across eight cargoes, the lowest level in a month, although it received its first Qatari LNG cargo since March aboard the Disha vessel.Pakistan imported 100,000 mt from Qatar on the Lebrethah vessel, while Bangladesh received 200,000 mt on three cargoes, its strongest level since summer 2025.Asian spot LNG prices remained steady, holding a premium of $2.3 per million British thermal units over the Northwest Europe benchmark, according to Vortexa.Europe imported 1.9 million mt of LNG on 34 cargoes, nearly 5% above its four-week average as hotter weather increased demand. France received 300,000 mt on five cargoes while maintenance continued at the 8 million mt per year Fos Cavaou terminal through the end of June.Italy imported 300,000 mt on five cargoes, the highest level in over a month, as stronger local gas prices attracted shipments. Across the European Union, gas storage reached 46% full, 14 percentage points below the five-year average, while LNG send-out averaged about 3,700 gigawatt-hours per day.QatarEnergy-controlled LNG carriers resumed Hormuz transits between June 17 and June 22, with seven vessels returning to reload for the first time since the US-Iran conflict began. Some vessels sailed with AIS tracking active, while others crossed with signals switched off, Vortexa said.Qatar loaded four LNG cargoes totaling 300,000 mt last week, including one onto the Al Hamla vessel. Two cargoes are heading to Kuwait, while the Disha and Mraikh vessels successfully exited Hormuz and later arrived in India and Pakistan.Separately, an explosion reportedly injured workers at Qatar's Ras Laffan complex on June 21 and affected the Barzan gas plant, which supplies the domestic market. Vortexa said the wider impact on LNG operations remains unclear.Australia's Ichthys LNG plant resumed exports after operator Inpex reached a pay agreement with unions and ended a five-day disruption. The facility shipped two cargoes totaling 100,000 mt last week, while Australia's overall exports reached 1.5 million mt across 22 cargoes.US exports held steady at 2.4 million mt on 35 cargoes, while Russia's Sakhalin 2 facility exported one cargo of 100,000 mt as seasonal maintenance appeared to begin.The Merkuriy vessel delivered a sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 cargo to China's Beihai terminal on June 19-20. The UK recently sanctioned Merkuriy, Kosmos, Luch and Orion, while six Arctic LNG 2 cargoes totaling 400,000 mt remain on their way to China, according to Vortexa.