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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Steadies As US-Iran Deadlock, Ship Attacks Raise Supply Risks

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EMEA crude futures held steady in after-hours trading on Tuesday as markets weighed fading hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement against mounting risks to crude shipments via the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures eased 0.7% to $91.50 per barrel, while Murban crude futures were up 0.5% to $98.20/bbl.

Saxo Bank strategists said that crude firmed again after Trump rejected extending the US-Iran agreement, while new attacks on vessels were reported in the Hormuz and fighting resumed in Lebanon.

Trump said on Tuesday that no talks were taking place with Iran, and none were scheduled, while insisting that the strait was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the strategic waterway remained shut to shipping.

"There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social. Monday marked the day by which Tehran and Washington were expected to reach a final deal under a memorandum of understanding agreed in June.

The US president said that the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in full force and effect, while claiming that "all water mines have been removed or detonated".

Meanwhile, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iranian speaker of parliament and top negotiator, reportedly said that the strait would remain shut until the US met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June.

Qalibaf said that the conditions include the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts.

However, despite Trump's claims that the strait is "open and operating", the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty.

The remaining crew was being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, UKMTO said.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, Yemen's Houthis launched missiles in an attack on vessels they described as a Saudi military ship and four escorts in the Red Sea, the group's spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said on Telegram on Monday.

Gelber & Associates said that an attack on a cargo ship early Tuesday and continued low transit activity through the strait reinforced those supply concerns, while disruptions in Russia and the Middle East are also tightening the global diesel market.

Commercial vessel traffic via the strait last week while vessel movements through the Bab el-Mandeb strait increased, according to the latest data from Kpler.

Confirmed crossings through Hormuz dropped 19.5% to 95 vessels in the week from 118 previously, Kpler data showed on Monday, while traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, increased 6.7% last week to 254 crossings from 238.

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US Oil Update: Crude Settles Higher As Markets Weigh Iran Offensive Threats

Crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday as markets weighed reports that Iran will shift to an offensive military posture after efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the conflict with the US have stalled.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed by 3.1% to $84.95 per barrel, while Brent futures rallied 2.9% to $91.11/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that the US is preparing additional economic measures against Iran, while Iran is reportedly strengthening its military capabilities and regional alliances.On Monday, an Iranian official reportedly said that entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Hormuz and the wider region, as talks between Tehran and Washington appear to be at a standstill after a 60-day truce expired.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baqaei, ruled out talks to extend the memorandum of understanding and alleged that the US violated the 60-day truce from the outset."We did not start any negotiations at all, and the US violated the understanding from the very beginning; therefore, the 60-day issue is not relevant," Baqaei said, according to Tasnim.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also said that it is prepared to respond to any threat or aggression as a 60-day truce with the US expires with no breakthrough in sight for talks to end the Middle East conflict.The US and Iran agreed to an MoU on June 17 that was supposed to open the Hormuz while they negotiated a final deal on Tehran's nuclear program within 60 days.Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said that the US' path forward will be economic sanctions, which is "a very lengthy process" with a "highly uncertain outcome."On Monday, Trump reportedly threatened to bomb Oman if the Gulf state gets in the way of the American blockade of Iranian ships. The US president also reiterated Washington's stance that Iran must agree to give up on possessing nuclear weapons.The rhetoric comes after Trump signaled that the administration intends to hit Iran's economy even harder, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying that new economic curbs could be unveiled this week.Meanwhile, commercial vessel traffic via the strait last week while vessel movements through the Bab el-Mandeb strait increased, according to the latest data from MarineTraffic.Confirmed crossings through Hormuz dropped 19.5% to 95 vessels last week from 118 in the week prior, MarineTraffic data showed, while traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, increased 6.7% last week to 254 crossings from 238.On Saturday, the UAE said that a "hostile Iranian attack" had targeted an Adnoc-affiliated vessel while it was transiting the strait. The incident followed two other attacks on Adnoc-linked ships.

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