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Hormuz Traffic Falls as Security Risks Rise Across Gulf Shipping Lanes

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Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle last week as persistent regional security threats continued to deter operators, while traffic via the Bab el-Mandeb showed improved visibility despite ongoing threats, according to shipping data released Monday.

The latest data from MarineTraffic show that a total of 95 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz last week, down 19.5% from 118 during Aug. 2-9.

Daily traffic dropped to just three vessels on Aug. 16. "Activity peaked at 19 crossings on 11 August, then declined through the weekend, reaching 3 crossings on 16 August," according to MarineTraffic.

Routing patterns also remained constrained. The maritime analytics firm said that 51 confirmed crossings used Iran's unilateral routing scheme, and 44 were classified as "route undetermined."

No transits were recorded through the International Maritime Organization's Hormuz Traffic Separator Scheme and the Omani route.

"The weekly risk profile included 62 All Rest crossings, 25 shadow fleet crossings and 8 sanctioned crossings," MarineTraffic said.

The decline comes as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to conduct attacks, attempted attacks and harassment of commercial shipping, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said on Sunday.

Three confirmed attacks were recorded during the latest reporting period, while other activity included unmanned aerial vehicle overflights and targeted surveillance of merchant vessels.

The UKMTO warned about risk of drifting or uncharted mines also remains, with mine danger areas still active around the traffic separation scheme.

Meanwhile, Trump said Monday that the US naval blockade remains a "wall of steel" and that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for vessels.

"As of Aug. 17, Centcom forces have redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled 3, and boarded 2 to ensure compliance," US Central Command posted on X on Monday.

The prolonged disruption to Hormuz could force producers, refiners and traders to rely more heavily on alternative export routes and inventories.

Meanwhile, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb moved in the opposite direction. Confirmed crossings increased 6.7% to 254 last week, according to MarineTraffic, although the number of dark transits dropped to 16 from 40.

Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased over the week, with 254 confirmed transits from Aug. 10-16, up from 238 during Aug. 3-9. "Activity remained resilient, with daily crossings ranging from 27 to 43," according to MarineTraffic.

Additionally, vessel visibility also improved in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait compared with the previous week.

Dark transits fell from 40 during Aug. 3-9 to 16 during Aug. 10-16, even as total crossings increased, MarineTraffic said, noting that this was a "positive visibility signal."

"Directionally, traffic was weighted toward vessels entering the Red Sea, with 150 entries versus 104 exits," MarineTraffic said.

UKMTO said commercial activity through the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remained reduced, consistent with the pattern established after the July 20 Houthi declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and earlier attacks on vessels in the region.

The security picture in Bab el-Mandeb remains volatile despite the absence of a fresh confirmed attack in the southern Red Sea.

Oman has intensified efforts to mitigate potential environmental impacts from an oil spill caused by the grounding of the vessel Caroline Bezengi, the country's Ministry of Transport, Communications and Information Technology said on Monday.

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