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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Holds Steady as Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire Over, Signals Continued Talks

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EMEA crude futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Friday as the US and Iran continued peace talks, but President Trump declared the existing ceasefire was "over."

Brent crude futures eased by 0.9% to $75.55 per barrel, while Murban crude futures slipped by 0.9% to $70.69/bbl.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said crude prices steadied as markets balanced ongoing US-Iran negotiations against renewed security risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Friday, Trump said the US and Iran have agreed to continue peace talks, but said Washington told Tehran "in no uncertain terms" that the ceasefire is over.

The US President on Friday told the New York Post in an interview that he has left instructions that should Iran succeed in assassinating him, Washington should bomb Iran at levels never seen before.

Iranian armed forces launched attacks on US military infrastructure in the Gulf states on Thursday after US strikes on Iran's southern coastal and eastern provinces, further straining a creaking ceasefire.

Saxo Bank strategists said that with oil prices softening following the midweek spike, traders appear to view the latest tensions as a challenge to the ceasefire rather than a complete breakdown, as Trump's earlier comments had briefly led markets to fear.

The International Energy Agency said in its July 2026 Oil Market Report that renewed hostilities between the two adversaries risk derailing efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories later in 2026.

The IEA said seasonal trends and a rebound in fuel supplies are lifting consumption from May lows, with global oil demand forecast to fall by 1 million barrels per day this year before rising by 2 mmbbl/d in 2027.

Global oil demand is projected to rise by over 8 mmbbl/d by October from the May low of 97.9 mmbbl/d, moving above 2025 levels for the first time since February.

The latest commercial vessel-tracking data showed traffic through the Hormuz remained muted for a second consecutive day as ship operators maintained a wide berth amid the lingering threat of regional escalation.

Kpler reported 22 confirmed vessel crossings on July 9, down from 30 the previous day, indicating that shipping companies remain reluctant to return to normal operating patterns following recent security incidents in the region.

On the supply side, Ukraine struck refineries in Russia, an oil terminal and an oil depot, along with tankers in the Sea of Azov, as Kyiv steps up its campaign targeting the Russian energy sector.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense said on Friday that its forces attacked the Ilsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region and the Ust-Luga oil refining complex in the Leningrad region.

Kyiv also targeted oil facilities in the Saratov, Rostov, Tver and Stavropol regions, as well as in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan.

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