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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Holds Steady as Markets Weigh US-Iran Peace Efforts

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EMEA crude futures largely held firm in after-hours trading on Friday as markets priced in a de-escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran, shifting focus back to fundamental supply-demand balances.

Brent crude futures rose by 0.32% to $72.02 per barrel, while Murban crude futures climbed by 1.5% to $66.18/bbl.

Brent trades near unchanged on the week, having returned to pre-war levels, with support emerging ahead of $70, Saxo Bank strategists said, adding that this may signal that the ongoing recovery in supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz is now largely priced in.

On Thursday, President Trump reportedly said that the US is still negotiating with Iran, while claiming that Tehran has agreed to almost all of Washington's demands.

Following an exchange of strikes last weekend, the US and Iran concluded peace talks in Doha with an agreement aimed at easing the Middle East conflict, easing concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan concluded separate meetings with US and Iranian negotiators in Doha, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson, Majed Al Ansari, said in a social media post on X on Thursday.

ING strategists said that the crude market continues to take an optimistic view on a supply recovery from the Persian Gulf, despite recent flare-ups between the US and Iran.

On the supply side, crude exports from Saudi Arabia have climbed to about 90% of pre-war levels, tracking a similar recovery in the UAE, while Iraq is beginning to show tentative signs of improvement, as a build-up of Iranian crude continues at sea, according to media reports.

Meanwhile, commercial vessels continued to move through the Strait, as agreed in the initial US-Iranian deal, with Kpler reporting 38 confirmed crossings on July 2, down 10% from the previous day but still within the emerging 30-60 crossings-per-day range.

Commercial vessels continued to dominate, while Iranian-flagged activity rose sharply and operators shifted towards Iranian and dark or unknown routes, Kpler strategists said in a note on X.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that crude prices are likely to remain range-bound to slightly weaker as regional supply continues to recover and geopolitical risk premiums fade.

Market participants will be closely following OPEC+'s meeting on Sunday, where the producing group is expected to hike output from August, adding supply at a time of falling prices amid the gradual reopening of the Hormuz.

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